Investing Club: What Cramer is watching Monday — Time to buy bitcoin yet?

Published Mon, Jan 24 20228:57 AM ESTUpdated Mon, Jan 24 20229:16 AM EST

What I am looking at January 24, 2022: Will we really risk war with Russia over the failed state of Ukraine? The options: 1. Will Russia move on Ukraine before Olympics when Putin is supposed to go there, something that would disrupt the games? 2. Is there something between all out war and status quo? I think there are multiple options but when the U.S. pulled out the families you got a sense that it can only be military. But the West is not united—Germany is helpless without Russian gas and NATO still fractured from the Trump era... 3. The U.S. does not have the horses to stop Russia. But it can exit gracefully from a failing regime or it can pull an Afghanistan... 4. No matter what, this is one of those events that causes a big decline with a resolution that does not damage most earnings... But markets are terrible about processing these kinds of Munich events. You can't sell on jitters and buy on more jitters… You must buy stocks on the basis of fundamentals that would or would not be affected by Ukraine falling...some newer investors must understand that a portfolio manager cannot abdicate... many critics might ask "who are you to make foreign policy judgments?"... These are the same people who say "who are you to make judgments about Covid?"... The answer is: if you are going to manage your own money you have NO CHOICE... you must try to have a worldview that includes these inputs. Average decline for homebuilders from cycle peak is 32%... we have now gone down 24%...you can't jump the gun here... When will stock buyers realize that they should wait until the last hour to buy? They buy way too early. Until that pattern is broken it's a dicey time to buy. Don't miss our live Morning Meeting at 10:20 a.m. today where I'll go into more on this with Jeff Marks... Top strategists who have been staying negative despite yields and stock prices...classic double down by the bearish analysts....even as their chief prop had been higher rates that have now fizzled ... Oil still has bid with or without Ukraine... oil is not what is at stake.. it is nat gas... no matter, oil can easily get to $100... There was not only one, but two private equity houses that wanted the second-rate Kohl's (KSS) which is a reminder that while the FTC may not want deals, there's a lot of money to go around... a reminder that even in the absence or takeovers there are private equity bids... Still downgrading : Jefferies takes Netflix (NFLX) to hold from buy... says lacks conviction after great uncertainty... Still downgraded: PPG Industries (PPG) —Wells Fargo buy to hold CNBC Millennial 50 down on avg 55.7% from high. Median 57.3%... NOT EARLY IN DECLINE Bitcoin buy?... has come down so much that you have to wonder isn't it time?... would it hurt these bulls to stop talking $100,000 for bitcoin?... makes it all seem so phony... Bank of America removes Applied Materials (AMAT) , Crown Castle (CCI) , General Motors (GM) from their top ideas list... adds SBA Communications (SBAC) ... Snap (SNAP) downgraded to hold from buy at Wedbush, cites TikTok competition, but SNAP has a great foothold among younger investors... Halliburton (HAL) ... 36 cents v. 34 cent est… oil remains firmly in bull market mode... Is Nvidia (NVDA) finished?... when it has been "finished" before is when you have to buy it... but no one knows how to value fallen supergrowth... There are 600 companies being valued like dotcoms in 2000...no bids... Is Wynn (WYNN) really dropping out of sports betting ?... this amount of money being spent is insane and not sustainable... Stephens takes Affirm (AFRM) from sell to hold... says cautious on buy now pay later BUT cheap enough and valuation and guide good... (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long NVDA, WYNN. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang wearing his usual leather jacket.

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What I am looking at January 24, 2022: