Earnings playbook: A complete guide to this week's reports after a bout of wild trading

Published Sun, Feb 6 20228:20 AM EST

Earnings season turned chaotic last week, with several tech reports spurring wild stock swings. Meta Platforms, PayPal and Spotify all shed massive market value, while Alphabet, Amazon and Snap posted stunning gains. Twitter, Disney and Peloton are next up this week, alongside Chipotle, Coca-Cola and Pfizer. CNBC breaks down what to watch for, as earnings season enters its second half. Tuesday Pfizer is set to report earnings around 5:45 a.m. ET, followed by an investor call at 10 a.m. Last quarter: PFE posted better-than-expected profit and revenue and issued an improved full-year forecast . This quarter: Wall Street is expecting both earnings and revenue to more than double year over year. What CNBC reporter Spencer Kimball is watching: "Investors will be listening closely for updates on the company's vaccine targeting the omicron Covid variant, which CEO Albert Bourla says will be ready by March. Pfizer is also working with the FDA to accelerate authorization of its Covid vaccine for children under 5 years old. The company may also provide updates on the production and distribution of its Covid treatment pill, Paxlovid." What history shows: Pfizer shares typically lose ground after an earnings ground, but it's on a three-quarter winning streak, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Peloton is due to report results at 4:05 p.m. ET, with an investor call at 5 p.m. Last quarter: PTON reported a wider-than-expected loss and slashed its full-year outlook, sending shares down 25%. This quarter: The Street is forecasting a sizeable loss per share, compared with an 18-cent per-share profit during the same quarter a year earlier. What CNBC retail reporter Lauren Thomas is watching: "After CNBC reported in a series of stories last month that Peloton was considering layoffs and other cost-cutting measures, while also planning for temporary production pauses , Peloton pre-announced some of its fiscal second-quarter financials . So while those numbers might not be a surprise this coming week, all eyes are on the company's full-year guidance. And Peloton's view for 2022 has already been cut once. The post-earnings conference call will also offer CEO John Foley a chance to address some of the recent reports about the connected fitness business, which is facing slowing momentum. Investors are eager to learn how Peloton plans to navigate a post-pandemic landscape, and what that will mean for the business' revenue mix. As new Bike and Tread sales slow, Peloton will grow more reliant on its existing subscriber base to drive future sales." What history shows: Of Peloton's nine quarterly reports as a public company, the stock has sold off after seven for an average next-day decline of more than 7%, according to Bespoke. Last quarter, shares plunged 35%. Lyft will release its results just after market close and will host a call with analysts at 4:30 p.m. ET. Last quarter: LYFT reported a per-share profit and said drivers were returning to the platform. This quarter: Analysts are projecting another quarterly per-share profit, which would be the company's second. What CNBC technology reporter Jessica Bursztynsky is watching: "Investors will get their first look into how the rideshare sector is faring when Lyft reports this week. Recovery in mobility has been inching forward, but it could have back-stepped amid the omicron surge. In the company's last earnings release, then-finance chief Brian Roberts said they anticipated service levels would naturally improve in the fourth quarter and lead to lower prices. Investors will also have an eye on whether Lyft tapered supply investments while adding active riders." What history shows: Lyft shares have a tough time after quarterly reports, advancing just 36% of the time, according to Bespoke. Chipotle Mexican Grill will report earnings around 4:10 p.m. ET, followed by a call with executives at 4:30 p.m. Last quarter: CMG earnings crushed estimates and sales jumped 22% as higher menu prices offset rising costs. This quarter: Wall Street is looking for roughly 50% EPS growth year over year. What CNBC restaurants reporter Amelia Lucas is watching: "Chipotle projected same-store sales growth in the low-to-mid double digits for the fourth quarter, but that was before the omicron variant swept through the U.S. Staffing challenges led the burrito chain to cut hours for some of its stores, likely hitting sales. On top of that, investors will be curious to see how Chipotle's customers are handling higher prices for their bowls and tacos." What history shows: Chipotle stock trades higher after an earnings report about half the time, but when it advances it typically puts up big gains, according to Bespoke. Wednesday CVS Health is due to report earnings just before 7 a.m. ET, with an investor call set for 8 a.m. Last quarter: CVS beat on earnings , lifted by Covid vaccines and prescription volumes. This quarter: Analysts are forecasting 40% earnings upside over last year. What CNBC retail reporter Melissa Repko is watching: "Investors will listen to see how much the omicron variant and holiday season lifted the number of Covid-19 vaccinations and tests that CVS administered — and if the drugstore chain was able to use demand for at-home test kits to acquire new customers, drive foot traffic and boost overall store sales. The drugstore chain will likely give an update, too, on its long-term plans to offer more health-care services, expand into primary care and combine its insurance company, Aetna, with its footprint of urgent care clinics." What history shows: CVS shares are fairly steady around earnings, rising after the report 60% of the time for a modest average gain, according to Bespoke. Yum Brands is slated to report results at 7 a.m. ET, followed by a call with executives at 8:15 a.m. Last quarter: YUM earnings beat , fueled by strong demand for KFC. This quarter: The Street is forecasting EPS slightly below last year's levels and modest revenue growth. What CNBC restaurants reporter Amelia Lucas is watching: "Since the pandemic began, KFC has taken Taco Bell's slot as the gem of Yum's portfolio, but most of its sales come from China, which has seen travel restrictions reimplemented in some regions. For Taco Bell, the question will be if it has revived its late-night and breakfast sales yet. Investors will also likely expect a progress report on Pizza Hut's U.S. turnaround." What history shows: Yum shares are on a three-quarter winning streak after a long stretch of down days following quarterly reports, according to Bespoke. Disney will release earnings at 4:05 p.m. ET, with an analyst call set for 4:30 p.m. Last quarter: DIS fell short across the board and revealed slowing streaming growth. This quarter: Wall Street expects earnings to nearly double year over year. What CNBC entertainment reporter Sarah Whitten is watching: "The easing of pandemic restrictions, which allowed movie theaters and theme parks to reopen in 2021, is expected to be reflected in Disney's fiscal first-quarter earnings. Investors will be looking to see improvements in revenues from the company's theme parks and at the box office, especially considering the more muted effects of the coronavirus omicron variant, compared with the delta variant. Disney's content investments into its streaming service should reap gains in the second half of 2022, but may not be seen in the most recent quarter. Streaming platforms across the industry have reported declining growth as consumers begin to feel more comfortable leaving their homes for other entertainment venues." What history shows: The calendar fourth quarter is Disney stock's strongest for next-day trading, with an average gain of 2% the day after a December report, according to Bespoke. Uber is due to report its results at 4:05 p.m. ET and host an analyst call at 5 p.m. Last quarter: UBER reported revenue up 72% , but wound up with a big loss partly due to the company's Didi stake. This quarter: Analysts expect a very similar quarter to Q3, with a per-share loss despite 70% revenue growth. What CNBC technology reporter Jessica Bursztynsky is watching: "Mobility recovery is still the story for Uber as the company rebuilds its transportation segment after a Covid slump. In early December , CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said Uber had its 'best week ever in terms of overall gross bookings.' He added the mobility business is getting closer to pre-pandemic levels. But investors will be watching to see if the omicron variant set that growth back." What history shows: It's hard to find a clear pattern to Uber stock trading around earnings. Thursday PepsiCo is set to report earnings at 6 a.m. ET, with an investor call at 8:15 a.m. Last quarter: PEP topped estimates , despite higher supply chain costs. This quarter: Wall Street is projecting single-digit annual growth in both EPS and revenue. What CNBC restaurants reporter Amelia Lucas is watching: "Last quarter, PepsiCo raised its full-year forecast as consumers kept up their pandemic snacking habits and bought more of the company's drinks. Still, like rival Coca-Cola, the company is facing higher costs and has been raising prices across its portfolio. Will consumers start trading down to private-label chips and orange juice?" What history shows: Pepsi stock has been performing well after earnings recently, with only one negative next day of the last nine, according to Bespoke. Coca-Cola is due to report earnings just before 7 a.m. ET, followed by an investor call at 8:30 a.m. Last quarter: KO exceeded expectations as consumers drank more beverages away from home. This quarter: Analysts forecast roughly 12% EPS downside compared with last year. What CNBC restaurants reporter Amelia Lucas is watching: "Coke is gearing up for a big 2022 after announcing two new alcohol products in January. But the beverage giant is still facing a number of challenges: inflation, pandemic uncertainty and higher exposure to a pullback in restaurant and movie theater visits than its rival PepsiCo. CEO James Quincey has previously said that the stock is likely getting punished for the company's away-from-home business." What history shows: KO stock has posted modest gains the day after an earnings report for the last three quarters, according to Bespoke. Twitter will report its results at 7 a.m. ET and host an analyst call at 8 a.m. Last quarter: TWTR met analysts' projections for revenue and user growth and said Apple privacy changes had less of an impact than expected. This quarter: Analysts are expecting earnings to come in roughly 8% below last year's levels. What CNBC technology reporter Lauren Feiner is watching: "After a mixed bag of earnings results for social media companies last week, Twitter earnings will give investors another another clue into how Apple's privacy changes on iOS and macroeconomic factors are impacting the sector. While Meta said Apple's changes will cause a $10 billion hit to its business this year, Snap said its advertising customers are adjusting to the changes more quickly than expected . Twitter previously said it expected only a modest impact from the Apple update on fourth-quarter revenue. But factors like supply chain disruptions that Snap and Meta mentioned weighing on advertiser budgets could impact Twitter, too." What history shows: Twitter shares lose an average of 3% the day after a quarterly report, according to Bespoke, and sold off more than 10% after its third-quarter report. Friday Under Armour is set to report results shortly before 7 a.m. ET, followed by a call with executives at 8:30 a.m. Last quarter: UAA beat on earnings and hiked its annual outlook. This quarter: Wall Street expects EPS to be roughly half what it was the same period last year. What CNBC retail reporter Lauren Thomas is watching: "Under Armour has used the pandemic as an opportunity to accelerate its strategy to pull back on promotions. Those efforts were evident when the sportswear retailer last reported quarterly earnings and hiked its annual guidance. This quarter, analysts and investors will be looking for continued traction in Under Armour's women's and footwear segments. Those are two longer-term growth drivers. Recently, however, Under Armour may have benefited from selling more clothing and less footwear, as supply chain obstacles linger. These issues have hurt dominant shoemakers including Nike and Adidas." What history shows: Under Armour shares historically lose ground after a quarterly update, but they posted big gains after each of the last two reports, according to Bespoke.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 04, 2022 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Earnings season turned chaotic last week, with several tech reports spurring wild stock swings.

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