RBC's Helima Croft says oil could jump well past $100 per barrel if Russia takes Kyiv

Published Fri, Feb 11 20225:32 PM EST

Kevin Stankiewicz @in/kevinstankiewicz @kevin_stank

Commodities expert Helima Croft told CNBC on Friday she expects that oil prices would jump significantly higher if the Russian military were to invade Ukraine and seize the capital, Kyiv. Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, appeared on "Closing Bell" to offer analysis on the latest escalation of Russian-Ukrainian tensions. On Friday, the U.S. warned that Russia could invade Ukraine "any day now" and urged American citizens in Ukraine to leave as soon as possible. The geopolitical developments Friday rippled across markets. The major Wall Street equity averages closed lower , while Treasury prices rose as investors fled to the safety of U.S. government debt. Oil prices also advanced Friday, and Croft said there's plenty of room to go depending on Russia's next moves. "The scenario that is the most impactful for oil would be a full invasion where you see the capital taken," Croft said. "That would potentially lead oil prices to go $10 to $20 higher from where they are here." U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $93.10 per barrel Friday, gaining more than 3%. Brent crude, the international benchmark, topped $95 a barrel at one point, but settled at $94.44. Russia is a major player in global energy markets. Croft noted that in addition to being one of the world's largest oil producers and exporters, it has a significant involvement in natural gas. "They are the main exporter of natural gas into Europe," Croft said, explaining why the Russia-Ukraine situation has such an impact on the energy landscape. She added she expects natural gas prices in Europe would also move sharply higher if Russia were to invade Ukraine and take over Kyiv. "There is a concern that natural gas supply going through Ukraine would be disrupted, that Russia would potentially weaponize energy exports because they will be hit with very, very significant sanctions if those troops cross the border in Ukraine," Croft said. Other commodities beyond just oil and natural gas also may be affected, according to Croft, who before working on Wall Street served as an analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency focused on commodities