What Cramer is watching Wednesday — Coinbase collapse, peak inflation, Peloton's cash burn

Published Wed, May 11 20229:32 AM EDTUpdated Wed, May 11 20229:35 AM EDT

What I am looking at May 11, 2022 The 10-year Treasury versus the stock market: Who wins today? Really difficult set of conversations with the companies that have come public in the last year. They are hard to value because they are trying to pivot to profitability with no path to do so. Endless pull forwards and hard comparisons. Chickens come home to roost moment. April consumer prices up 8.3% year over year, stronger than expected. Peak inflation? We did moderate a bit. But retail inflation remained near 40-year highs. Coinbase (COIN) — confusing narrative that takes bankruptcy off the table. Thank goodness. Shares of COIN dropped more than 40% in April. JMP Securities lowers price target to $250 from $394. Unity Software (U) hurt by Apple (AAPL) changes and a corruption of data. Shares plunged 23% in the premarket, after the video software developer lowered revenue guidance. Roblox (RBLX) has $3 billion and had hard compares. The kids' video game company 's revenues were down 3% in the first quarter and down 8% in April. But daily active users 54.1 million, up 28% from a year earlier but below Street consensus of 55 million. Upstart (UPST) has credit risk people didn't anticipate, because the artificial intelligence lending platform has lots of questionable vintage loans with high failure rates. Is AI just a panacea when the yield curve goes bonkers? Atlantic Equities downgraded to hold from buy, doesn't like using the balance sheet to stuff loans. Peloton (PTON) cash burn at more than $700 million in latest quarter was more than twice what Loop Capital was modeling, so analyst drops price target to $27 from $55 to $27. But encouraging signs that churn impact from subscription price increase may be limited. JMP Securities upgrades to buy, but Stifel downgrades to hold. Big prices cuts from Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Barclays. Classic home renovation stock Azek has price target cut to $24 from $30 at Citi, but analyst says growth story largely intact. Barclays says "superb entry point." Profitable, 13 times EPS. DoorDash (DASH) could earn $1.32 — path to profitability. Toast (TOST) no path to profitability — POS (point-of-sale) ... so many of these systems. Lemonade (LMND) is down 55% for the year. No real path to profitability, even if liked by customers. Allbirds (BIRD)—cautious outlook, numbers cut. No path to profitability looking out two years. Positives "more than offset" by international headwinds, management said. Macro-driven logistics and distribution cost center, unfavorable forex rates, lower mix of margin in overseas business. Next quarter will be tough despite all of the innovations and new stores. They have $239 million in cash. Should make it ... Warby Parker (WRBY) keeps going down, but could earn 6 cents this year and 18 cents next year. Robinhood (HOOD) Snacks says that Tesla (TSLA), Block (SQ), Coinbase and Microstrategy (MSTR) have lost billions on crypto. Very good that HOOD is recognizing this. HOOD has no path to profitability in next few years. Still price to sales. McKesson (MCK) price target raised to $377 from $333 at Credit Suisse — real company, 14 times EPS, and helps distributer drugs and health aides. Business software company Avaya (AVYA) missed on quarterly report. JPMorgan downgrades to sell from hold. Barclays lowers PT to $8 from $11. This stock was $32 a year ago. Now $7. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) price target lowered to $79 from $97 at Wells Fargo. Charitable Trust name that we are waiting for end of Covid lockdowns. Papa John's (PZZA): UBS says top-line pressure, slashes PT to $93 from $144. But company is taking a big share from Pizza Hut. Playtika (PLTK) is another games play, misses numbers. Very profitable though. Credit Suisse lowers price target to $24 from $30. Carvana (CVNA) price target cut to $65 from $125 at Baird. Stifel downgrades to hold from buy. Revised model says it needs even more capital to get to breakeven. Gross profit per car had been good. They do some financing, too. Planet Fitness (PLNT) upgraded to buy at JPMorgan ... usage trends good post pandemic. Softbank: Bloomberg reports its Vision Fund lost $18.6 billion, even greater than the $18.3 billion drop in the fiscal year … Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) — Long runway for store count. Margins to expand sharply in second half. Current valuation embeds conservative long-term expectations. Trade Desk (TTD) price target cuts … guided to better numbers but nobody cares. XPO Logistics (XPO) price target lowered at Susquehanna and KeyBanc. Singularity Future Tech (SGLY): Nasdaq-listed company's CEO is a fugitive on the run for allegedly operating a massive Ponzi scheme, says Hindenburg Research, which announced a short position in the Chinese company. Deutsche Bank upgraded Grocery Outlet (GO) … shoppers going bargain hunting Western Digital (WDC) – Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank raised priced targets … Investor Day, they liked it. Health Catalyst (HCAT) rolling over … no path to profitability. SVB Financial Group says health-tech trade continues be unforgiving; guidance was soft. Talkspace (TALK) – behavioral health-care platform … another disaster, no path to profitability JPMorgan initiated coverage Affirm (AFRM) with neutral rating … digital point of sale on platform BNPL (buy now, pay later) over-reliance on key distribution (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long AAPL, WYNN. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. 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Monitors display Coinbase signage during the company's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York, on Wednesday, April 14, 2021.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

What I am looking at May 11, 2022

The 10-year Treasury versus the stock market: Who wins today? Really difficult set of conversations with the companies that have come public in the last year. They are hard to value because they are trying to pivot to profitability with no path to do so. Endless pull forwards and hard comparisons. Chickens come home to roost moment.
April consumer prices up 8.3% year over year, stronger than expected. Peak inflation? We did moderate a bit. But retail inflation remained near 40-year highs.