What Cramer is watching Thursday — Disney did deliver, S&P analogues, crypto crash

Published Thu, May 12 20229:39 AM EDTUpdated Thu, May 12 20229:42 AM EDT

What I am looking at May 12, 2022 The noose around Russia tightens as Finland wants into NATO. Russia's neighbor has been neutral since its defeat in World War II, and remained nonaligned militarily after joining the European Union in 1995. Major encirclement even as Russia has more money from oil and gas. Are Ukrainian cities Kharkiv and Kyiv too big to be taken over? Disney (DIS) shares were up and then down on the same quarterly information after the bell Wednesday. No shortfall, but a lot of dissembling by analysts here. The company needs Shanghai and Hong Kong up and running though. Credit Suisse lowers price target to $170 from $218, says second half of 2022 remains key to the year. Margins are terrific according to Credit Suisse. Basic business is doing extremely well. The S & P 500 is now down about 17% from peak. In December 2018, it was off 19.8% from its peak on the Fed's lockstep rate hikes. But market's price-earnings ratio was 13.5 in 2018; we are now at 16. That's come down from recent p/e of 17, but it can go lower. How about 2015-2016 when Fed was aggressive? Cut to deflation quickly. How about 2011? Down nearly 20% from high, but risks imported from overseas. How about 2007-2009? You need crypto systemic risk. I keep coming back to 2000, with too many new companies falling apart. Coinbase (COIN): How much money do they really have? Playing the long game. As always, thought it would be tether. Tether fell to 98 cents Thursday morning; it's meant to be pegged to the dollar. Who even knows what the margin limits are here? They are all holding hands and Coinbase says it is just a slowdown and things are all good. Not great. Luna(tic) Terra erased 97% of its value in 24 hours and was last worth cents. Fidelity will allow savers to put bitcoin in 401(k). Chipmaker GlobalFoundries (GFS) posted better-than-expected financial results, working 24-7 to fill demand. Micron Technology (MU) on Mad Money tonight. Semis still strong but, like in a true bear market, no one cares. Drive-through coffee company Dutch Bros (BROS) expands too fast. Dairy, oil, labor costs taking toll. Not Starbucks (SBUX) or Chipotle (CMG) after all ... No trade down at Molson (TAP), which is on Mad tonight. If anything, trade up as sales are excellent. Rivian (RIVN): Is this for real? Mizuho cuts price target to $80 from $90 to 80, Baird goes to $67 from $84, Piper Sandler to $108 from $112. Cannibis eruptus. GrowGeneration (GRWG) has 50% decline in same-store sales. Claims it has the money. In March President Joe Biden said it would release 1 million barrels of oil a day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for six months (180 million barrels). That means we would be at 345 million barrels stored out of 714 million storage capacity. Europe can handle cut of oil but NOT of natural gas. WeWork (WE) first quarter looks like better than guidance. AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: Bulls fell a couple percentage points to 24%. Bear dropped 4 percentage points to 49%. BUT four-week average of bears is over 50%. Unheard of, frankly. Affirm (AFRM) on tonight. The company has low defaults, delinquencies are very low … 50% of loans are off books. Higher quality, but we have to expect a clampdown. How does a non-paying person start paying? Bumble (BMBL) catches four price target cuts, but doing well. IFF price target dropped to $145 from $165 at Deutsche Bank, keeps a buy rating. Wells Fargo and Susquehanna raise price targets for Occidental Petroleum (OXY). Robinhood (HOOD) shares at $8. Wells Fargo double downgrades Ford (F) to sell, says negatives outweigh positives. Analyst concerned 2022 could be peak profits, as Ford will increasingly need to absorb BEV (battery electric vehicle) losses. Zoom Video Communications (ZM) downgrade to neutral from overweight at Piper Sandler. Core video is mature, moving beyond video, lack of growth, lack of free cash growth. ON Semiconductor (ON): upgrade to overweight at Wells Fargo. Opportunity can't be ignored. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long DIS, F. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Bob Chapek, CEO of the Walt Disney Company and former head of Walt Disney Parks and Experiences, speaks during a media preview of the D23 Expo 2019 in Anaheim, California, Aug. 22, 2019.

Patrick T. Fallon | Bloomberg via Getty Images

What I am looking at May 12, 2022

The noose around Russia tightens as Finland wants into NATO. Russia's neighbor has been neutral since its defeat in World War II, and remained nonaligned militarily after joining the European Union in 1995. Major encirclement even as Russia has more money from oil and gas. Are Ukrainian cities Kharkiv and Kyiv too big to be taken over?