Analysts react to Tesla's latest earnings, break down what's next for electric car maker

Published Thu, Jul 21 20227:11 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Jul 21 20228:08 AM EDT

Some analysts covering Tesla seem to be breathing a sigh of relief following the release of the electric car maker's latest quarterly results. The company reported Wednesday earnings per share that beat analyst expectations, with revenue growing by 42% on a year-over-year basis. However, automotive margins declined due to inflation and increased competition for electric-vehicle components. Those somewhat mixed results were enough to quell come analyst concerns, at least in the near term. "Tesla posted sequentially lower numbers but all key P & L numbers surprised positively with earlier price hikes feeding through ARPUs. Cashing in Bitcoin avoided a write down. As expected, working capital constrained FCF on high Q end inventories set to reverse in Q3," wrote Jefferies' Philippe Houchois in a note titled "Relief, considering what could go wrong in Q2." He maintained his buy rating and $1,050 price target on the automaker. RBC analyst Joseph Spak echoed Houchois' sense of relief, noting that: "2Q22 seems to be the near-term nadir with TSLA focused on 'a record-breaking second half of 2022." He has an outperform rating and $1,100 price target on the company. Analysts and investors were worried about Tesla's second-quarter results, as the company faced a myriad of production issues at its Berlin, Texas and Shanghai factories. On top of that, Tesla's bitcoin holdings raised concern that the electric car maker would have to take a write down after the digital currency's sharp decline during the quarter. With the second quarter out of the way, some analysts think Tesla is set up for a strong second half of 2022. "2H volumes should be record half with the aid of Berlin and Austin. June was TSLA's highest production month based on record production in Fremont, Shanghai returning online, and the two new factories," Baird analyst Ben Kallo, who has an outperform rating on Tesla, said in a note. "TSLA still targets 50% volume growth y/y (we model 52%), and during commentary stated it targets ending the year at 40k/week production (higher than our target production for 2023)." He also characterized the company's second-quarter report as "better than feared." What's next for Tesla? However, some analysts said they don't expect any major movement in Tesla's share price in the near term. "Hard to see what really rocks the boat on consensus on Tesla until the company posts a more significant margin miss and/or we see evidence of new growth/margin profile from the ramp of Berlin and Austin," Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, one of the biggest Tesla bulls on the Street, wrote in a Wednesday note. Until then, Jonas sees the stock's price as likely too high for auto investors, but potentially attractive for tech investors. He maintained his overweight rating on the stock and $1,150 price target. Jonas added he's looking at a few catalysts that will matter for the stock until the end of the year – momentum from China's reopening, ramp-up execution in Berlin and Austin and how inflation impacts pricing and margins. Bank of America's John Murphy also sees the stock in a holding pattern near term. "Despite the relatively good 2Q:22 performance, we have trepidation that TSLA stock may already be priced for perfection (or at least priced for hyperbolic growth), such that near-term earnings beats may be insufficient to get bulls incrementally positive," he wrote in a Wednesday note. He has a neutral rating and $950 price target on shares. Jeffrey Osborne of Cowen is also looking at catalysts down the road for any meaningful impact to shares. "We see shares range bound until evidence plays out that TX and Berlin are ramping well," he wrote in a Wednesday note, adding that Tesla's guidance of 50% growth for the full-year looks "aggressive in our view." The next catalysts he's looking at are the company's shareholder day in August and September AI day. He maintained his market perform rating and raised his price target to $733 from $700. Justifying Tesla's valuation Tesla's valuation also well above that of the broader market — even after dropping nearly 30% for the year. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of about 100, while the S & P 500 trades at more than 18 times earnings. Because of this, some analysts see no need to change their views on Tesla, even after the company's solid quarterly report. "While we acknowledge TSLA's innovation and financial success, we continue to struggle to justify the company's valuation," Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein wrote Thursday. "TSLA's valuation is higher than all other major auto makers combined, and appears to imply huge volume AND industry leading profitability going forward, which is historically unprecedented. We believe risk/reward at current levels is not attractive for longer-term investors." Sacconaghi maintained his underperform rating and a $450 price target for Tesla. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting

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