Goldman says market mechanics indicate there could be another leg lower

Published Thu, Aug 4 202210:40 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Aug 4 202212:30 PM EDT

Goldman Sachs isn't convinced the market has reached a bottom yet. Stocks wavered on Thursday , coming off a strong session on Wednesday that saw the Dow jump more than 400 points. The S & P 500 , which fell into bear market territory in June, but is now up more than 11% from its June 16 low. "Despite the recent rebound in our positioning indicator, we are not convinced that we are past the 'true' trough in positioning just yet, as we think the path from here is likely to become more dependent on macroeconomic data," Goldman analysts wrote. In fact, without a positive shift in macro momentum, temporary re-risking could actually boost risks of another leg lower in the market, they said. "This is particularly the case if the positive shift is driven by the systematic community and not by fundamental investors," they said. In other words, those systemic traders didn't get bearish enough. "Without broader conviction across investors on the healthiness of the rebound, the current low levels of volatility might be difficult to sustain and systematic strategies might be quite quick in de-risking in such a scenario," the analysts wrote. The investment bank takes into account futures data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission when making its determinations, thereby focusing on large institutional investors. In fact, investors haven't reached levels of bearishness that typically mark a true bottom, according to Goldman's market indicators. "The 'true' trough of our indicator has generally occurred at levels below the 20th percentile, a level we have not actually reached YTD, which suggests there could still be room for downside moves, especially after temporary rebounds," the analysts wrote. Once that true trough is reached, it takes on average three months to recover to pre-trough levels, they said. Goldman isn't alone in its prediction that the market hasn't seen the bottom yet. Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel is among those in agreement, telling CNBC on Wednesday he believes investors may be overly optimistic following July's rally. Investors are closely watching data on inflation, which they hope is peaking, and comments from the Federal Reserve . On Wednesday, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told CNBC he doesn't think the United States is currently in a recession and that the central bank will continue to hike rates to control inflation.