What Cramer is watching Monday — oil tanks on China concerns; big call on online retail

Published Mon, Aug 15 20229:05 AM EDT

What I am looking at Aug. 15, 2022 Oil down roughly 5.5%. So that's good for retail, trading with China. I continue to think oil stocks represent good value above $80 per barrel on West Texas Intermediate crude . Saudi Aramco says it's ready to produce more oil. But not that much. China: Is it becoming like our mortgage crisis? Twenty-one developers there have gone under. The Chinese central bank panicking with 10-basis-point interest rate cut. Small but unexpected. Still, while others call it alarming and there's high unemployment for those in their early 20s at 19.9%. Can we just remember it is a totalitarian society that can put everyone to work in the army. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) getting crushed here, visible China play; Nucor (NUE) down big; another company hurt by China ON Semiconductor (ON). However, Piper Sandler raised ON Semiconductor price target to $90 per share from $75. RBN Energy CEO Rusty Braziel sees no new oil refinery capacity expected in near-term. Who knows how long we will need refineries if we go electric? The dilemma writ large. Job cuts at Best Buy (BBY) and Peloton (PTON) Bernstein says we "should we be worried" about Club holding Apple (AAPL) services growth deceleration; but says can grow in teens on a percentage basis. Barclays downgrades Revolve (RVLV) to sell from hold (underweight from equal weight), cuts its price target to $20 per share from $30. Profitable. The stock down 50% year to date. Social marketing clothes to Millennial and Gen Z consumers. Barclays takes Stich Fix (SFIX) price target to $7 per share from $8, with a hold rating. The stock down 61% year to date. Unprofitable. Online personalized styling platform. Poshmark (POSH) upgraded to buy from hold (overweight from equal weight). The stock down 30% year to date. Unprofitable. Social marketplace for new and second-hand clothes. Etsy (ETSY) initiated with a hold (equal weight) rating at Barclays, with a $100-per-share price target. Big marketplace: 100 million clients. Deutsche Bank takes Illinois Tool Works (ITW) to sell from hold. This has been one of the worst "sell" calls I've seen in my career, yet people keep slapping one on. BMO Capital upgrades Air Products (APD) to buy from hold (outperform from market perform). Aggressive push to green energy cited. Truist lowers price target on EOG Resources (EOG) to $175 per share from $182 but keeps a buy rating. Still has material running room. BMO Capital downgrades Dollar General (DG) to hold from buy (market perform from outperform), says the stock is close to peak valuations. Keeps price target at $265 per share. CVS Health (CVS) price target raised to $120 per share $114 at Mizuho. The last quarter was terrific. Citi upgrading its model on Disney (DIS) and increasing its price target on the stock to $160 per share from $145. Argus takes Southwest Airlines (LUV) to hold from buy. Analyst there cites inflationary pressures and capacity constraints. Oppenheimer sees a quarterly beat and an outlook raise coming for Ulta Beauty (ULTA). Credit Suisse lowers price target on Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) to $125 per share from $165. Analysts there see concerns over gradual recovery in margins "partially offset by the company's $2B global cost reduction program." (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

A view of the skyline of Shanghai, the financial capital of China. China will be worst-hit if the world slips into stagflation, according to a global financial analytics firm.

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What I am looking at Aug. 15, 2022

Oil down roughly 5.5%. So that's good for retail, trading with China. I continue to think oil stocks represent goo