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'We're not in a recession,' say economists: Why the 11 million job openings are a key indicator

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The extremely tight labor market won't let up: There were 11.2 million job openings in July, or twice as many openings as the number of people looking for work, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

July job openings rebounded from a drop in June, which economists said could indicate a cooldown in the hiring market at the time.

"I was a little surprised to see [openings] rose — I was expecting it to continue its slow tick downward," AnnElizabeth Konkel, senior economist with Indeed Hiring Lab, tells CNBC Make It.

News of recent layoffs at companies from Apple to Walmart have shaken some confidence in the job market, but by all accounts, those experiences aren't moving the numbers in aggregate. The layoff rate remained near historic lows under 1% of the workforce, or 1.4 million people, in July. Layoffs remained steady in the information sector where tech jobs live, Konkel adds.

Meanwhile, 6.4 million people were hired into new jobs, and another 4.2 million quit.

"By historical standard, job openings remain much higher than they were pre-pandemic, so it goes to show employers are looking for workers," Konkel says.

Workers expect better jobs and more money

Not only are workers seeking out new jobs in the tight market, but they're also setting their salary expectations higher.

The share of people looking for jobs that pay $20 hourly wages grew 35.5% year over year, according to Indeed's labor market update for August, and outpaces search interest for jobs that pay a $15 hourly wage.

Konkel says there's likely a push and a pull factor at play: Job-seekers understand that in the tight market, they're in the driver's seat to leverage employers raising their wages, and they're changing their salary expectations accordingly. The typical job-switcher got a 10% pay bump after changing jobs in the last year, according to Pew Research Center.

On the other hand, with record inflation at play, people may also be searching for higher-paying jobs in order to make ends meet.

"It's possible one person could experience both of those things of thinking: 'Maybe I can get this higher pay' and also, 'I'm looking at my current paycheck, and it's not going as far as it used to,'" Konkel says.

Some are re-prioritizing security but still have lots of options

One in four employed job seekers say they feel less secure about their current job than they did six months ago, according to a ZipRecruiter index of job-seekers' confidence, which fell to an all-time low in August.

Additionally, while job-seekers have generally prioritized higher pay, less stress and greater flexibility during the pandemic, desire for job security rose to their second-biggest priority in August.

Despite concerns, there are 60% more job openings and businesses are hiring 6% more new staff each month compared with pre-Covid numbers, leading to "vastly expanded opportunities for job seekers, and far greater job security than before the pandemic," according to ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollak.

The job market today is better for workers than pre-pandemic

Konkel agrees that the job market "continues to be better than it was before the pandemic for workers." She says it also provides another data point that "we're not in a recession," which the National Bureau of Economic Research defines as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." 

"Where we sit right now, the labor market remains strong," Konkel says. "We're not seeing substantial slowdown in the labor market from any data I've seen."

Check out:

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