This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Stocks' sideways slog near two-month lows continues, with elevated bond yields keeping the pressure on and support underneath coming from light risk positioning and the hope for the Federal Reserve to pull the ultimate destination for rates into view. Neither the big-picture bear case (inflation keeps raging, Fed will overtighten into a recession) nor the upbeat take (Fed near a pause, inflation should soon fall hard on its own, economy resilient) is provable within the time frame of an impatient trader community, so we chop around what's become nearly a five-month range. Once again, nothing happening now is incompatible with this being a prolonged, messy bottoming effort longer term. But, under the shadow of a prevailing downtrend since January and with the Fed tightening into a slower economy and yield curves inverted from two years out, the bulls lack the benefit of the doubt. The story of central banks rushing rates higher to restrain inflation is a global one and has made bonds at least as bad as stocks this year, depriving investors of a volatility buffer and depleting the overall supply of capital to buy cheapening assets. Here's the iShares International Treasury Bond ETF (IGOV) vs the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI) this year: The bond market seems to have repriced pretty fully for an expectedly hawkish Fed, projecting a peak 4.4% fed funds rate early next year (we're at 2.25-2.5% now), with most of the upside done by New Year's. For stocks, it's a less precise calculation. Much medicine has been taken — Bespoke says 40% of large-cap Russell 1000 stocks are down from their pre-pandemic peak, and 20% are off at least 20%. There's much talk of leaky earnings consensus forecasts, rightly so, but again the market has dropped in part because it lacks confidence in the profit outlook. Are equities still "too expensive" with bond yields here, the 10-year near 3.5%? The S & P index, maybe, at 16.5x, with some cross-asset models saying it should be one or two multiple points cheaper. Yet again, it's mostly the very largest handful of stocks (Apple, Amazon, Tesla) inflating the aggregate P/E. I looked at a selection of blue chip stocks forward P/E today compared to prior times in the past 20 years (in 2018, 2011, 2008, 2003) when the 10-year was at about today's level. Names like JPMorgan Chase, Home Depot, UPS and Merck are all in line with, or lower than, their prior valuations from those periods. Market breadth is pretty nasty, with more than 85% downside NYSE volume. Credit is softer but not dramatically so. VIX getting puffed up 24 hours ahead of the Fed decision, near 27, mechanical stuff.