What AMD's warning means for the other chip stocks, according to Bank of America

Published Fri, Oct 7 202212:31 PM EDT

AMD's third-quarter warning on weaker PC demand points to more trouble ahead for chipmakers such as Intel and Nvidia, according to Bank of America. "Read-across negative for INTC, NVDA, memory, datacenter," analyst Vivek Arya wrote in a Thursday note. "We believe AMD's warning will have the most negative read-across for PC peer INTC, but also somewhat for NVDA (consumer graphics) and related memory and data center peers." Semiconductor stocks have broadly come under pressure as supply chain issues roiled through the industry. Shares of AMD are down 57% this year. Intel and Nvidia are down nearly 50% and 58% in 2022, respectively. The analyst expects that weakness will continue during the third-quarter reporting season. After AMD warned investors that third-quarter revenue will fall short of initial expectations, the stock dropped 7.8% during Friday trading. Meanwhile, shares of Intel fell 4.5%, and Nvidia declined 6.3%. Still, diminished expectations could mean that semiconductor stocks could soon find a bottom, so long as the economic picture does not get worse, according to the note. "The rolling correction in semis is still working through consumer, and will likely impact enterprise and data center growth rates," Arya wrote. "However, we expect most cuts to be reflected when companies report Q3 results, which could conceptually help create a trough in semi stocks assuming the macro environment (rates, China, Europe) doesn't get worse from here." AMD is still a buy Bank of America reiterated a buy rating on AMD, saying that the third-quarter warning was expected, and argued that it will continue to gain share from its peers, such as direct competitor Intel. "Our new model still implies 13% YoY sales and 21% YoY pf-EPS growth for CY23, well above broader semis sales that will decline. ... Reiterate Buy on continued share gain potential against INTC and on compelling 16x CY23E PE, lower end of historical 15x-63x range and 39x median PE," Arya added. Bank of America's price target of $90, which was lowered from $100, represents about 32% upside from Thursday's closing price of $67.85. But the analyst forecasts that AMD's fourth quarter will also be impacted, and lowered calendar year 2022 and 2023 earnings estimates. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

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