Stocks staged a massive comeback Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging 1,500 points from its lows to the highest level, as traders shook off another hot inflation report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 827.87 points, or 2.83%, to close at 30,038.72 after being down more than 500 points earlier in the day. The S&P 500 climbed 2.60% to 3,669.91, breaking a six-day losing streak. The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.23% to end the day at 10,649.15.
The choppy session saw stocks fall to their lowest levels since 2020 following hotter-than-expected inflation data and then post a stunning rebound. The Dow regained more than 1,300 points as traders digested the September consumer price index report. The S&P 500 posted its widest trading range since March 2020.
Thursday marked the fifth largest intraday reversal from a low in the history of the S&P 500, and it was the fourth largest for the Nasdaq, according to SentimenTrader.
Gains in energy and bank stocks led the rebound. Shares of Chevron gained 4.85% as oil prices spiked, and bank stocks Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan rose 3.98% and 5.56%, respectively. A reversal in big tech names such as Apple and Microsoft and a surge in semiconductors Nvidia and Qualcomm also contributed to the move higher.
Investors may be betting that the stronger-than-expected inflation report means price increases will peak soon.
"Maybe we get this last gasp higher in inflation and from here we start to decelerate," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. She added, however, that swings in stocks are likely to continue as investors digest more inflation data and earnings season kicks off.
"I think there's still plenty of things that could drive volatility and intraday swings are just the nature of the beast right now," she said.
Stocks fell to session lows when the September consumer inflation report showed a larger-than-expected increase. The consumer price index increased 0.4% for the month, more than the 0.3% estimate from Dow Jones. On an annual basis, inflation was up 8.2%.
Persistent high inflation could mean that the Federal Reserve is more aggressive with future interest rate hikes and keeps rates higher until price increases cool off.
Stocks close higher after remarkable Thursday reversal
Stocks closed higher Thursday after staging a major reversal in intraday trading.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 827 points, or 2.83%, to close at 30,038.06 after being down more than 500 points earlier in the day.
The S&P 500 ticked up 2.60% to 3,669.87, breaking a six-day losing streak. The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.23% to end the day at 10,649.15.
Regional banking ETF snaps 6-day slide, jumping 4.4%
The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF is ahead 4.5%, led by KeyCorp, Regions Financial, Fifth Third and Huntington Bancshares (all of which higher by 6.3% or more), and on course to snap a six-day slide.
Financial stocks led the S&P 500 higher Thursday, with the S&P 500 Financials Index gaining 4.14%, six basis points more than the S&P 500 Energy index's 4.08%. (A basis point is 0.01 of a percentage point).
Still, the only stock in the S&P 500 setting a 52-week high Thursday was Cigna, which also reached an all-time high, dating back to its IPO in 1972.
— Scott Schnipper, Gina Francolla, Christopher Hayes
Market reversal is a reflection of sentiment
The market's huge rebound today is likely a reflection of sentiment, according to Jeff DeGraaf, chairman and head of technical research at Renaissance Macro Research.
"Sentiment has really been one of the primary bullish, or more persistent bullish attributes of the market," DeGraaf said on CNBC's "Closing Bell." He added that there was a low volume decline in the last two weeks with sentiment as bad as he's seen it in a long time.
"So really the stage was set," he said, adding that bulls as low as they were means concerns have been relatively discounted."
That set up the stage nicely for a rebound.
"I think people were positioned pretty bearishly going into this number," he said.
Stocks at session highs going into last hour of trading
Stocks surged to session highs in the last hour of trading Thursday, reversing after falling to lowest levels since 2020.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 922 points, or 3%, recovering from a 500-point drop earlier in the day. The S&P 500 ticked up 2.75%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.29%.
The S&P 500 is on track to snap a six-day losing streak.
Every stock is up on the Dow
Every stock on the Dow Jones Industrial Average was in the green Thursday afternoon after the index rallied more than 1,300 points from session lows to session highs.
Walgreens Boots Alliance was the top performing stock, up more than 6%. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs both ticked up, gaining roughly 5% and 4%, respectively, while American Express rose more than 3%. Dow Chemical, Chevron, McDonald's and 3M were all top gainers as well.
Process industries, energy materials and finance were the top performing sectors in the afternoon, according to FactSet.
S&P 500 bounces off of key retracement level
The S&P 500 on Thursday bounced off its 50% Fibonacci retracement level going back to the March 2020 lows. In other words, the benchmark dipped below the midway point between its pandemic low and the record high set in January and bounced off of it.
— Fred Imbert
Netflix pops after unveiling price of ad-supported subscriber tier
Netflix shares traded more than 3% higher after the streaming giant said it will charge $6.99 for its its ad-supported subscriptions. The company also said commercials will run for 15 or 30 seconds.
— Alex Sherman
Don't be in a rush in this market, says Josh Brown
In this market environment, investors should be selective, Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown told CNBC Thursday.
"What is the rush? Why do you have to put on a whole position now? Why do you have to call a bottom now?" said Brown, referring to the chatter about whether or not Thursday's bounce meant a bottom was in.
"The right approach is adding exposure, just not acting that this is as bad as it can get, because clearly that has not been the case."
He particularly likes Dutch Bros, which was recently upgraded to outperform from neutral by JPMorgan. The stock is down about 30% from when it last reported earnings and will substantially grow its store locations, Brown said.
— Michelle Fox
'It's a mistake to get too excited about this rally,' Brigg Macadam's Greg Swenson says
Investors shouldn't trust the market rebound Thursday, and prepare for more volatility ahead, according to Greg Swenson, founding partner at Brigg Macadam, an investment bank.
"I think it's a mistake to get too excited about this rally," Swenson said. He said investor optimism that inflation has peaked — after the hotter-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning — will probably be short-lived.
"It's more of a bear market rally, and I think we're going to get more bad news," he said.
— Sarah Min
50 Park Investments' Sarhan says oversold conditions contributing to Thursday's bounce
Heavily oversold conditions primed the market for Thursday's long overdue bounce but the vicious bear market cycle will likely continue, said Adam Sarhan, founder and CEO of 50 Park Investments.
After a big leg down, Sarhan said it's normal for the market to go lower, digest that move higher, make a new high, and drop again.
Thursday's stock market moves are likely a combination of short-covering and value investors stepping in, he said. That could also be influencing momentum traders to buy the jump.
Sarhan said earnings season could serve as another catalyst for a bounce going forward, especially if companies beat already low expectations.
— Samantha Subin
Some investors likely pricing in peak Fed tightening, Oanda's Moya says
Some investors pricing in peak Federal Reserve tightening appears to be contributing to Thursday's market action, Oanda's Ed Moya said.
"Wall Street is confident that inflation is slowly coming down and that it will continue now that markets are pricing in the Fed to take rates into significantly restrictive territory," Moya said. "Peak Fed tightening is priced in for some and that is a good enough reason to buy stocks right now."
Still, Moya called the market reversal a "head-scratcher" given that the hot inflation print fueled expectations that the Fed's hiking cycle will likely persist.
— Samantha Subin
Market swing came after traders saw not much new in inflation report, Art Hogan says
Thursday's huge market reversal in which early big losses dramatically switched to strong gains came as investors digested the morning's inflation report and didn't see a whole lot new in it, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial.
"People settled back in and said, 'What's changed? What do we know that we didn't know?" said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. "We knew the services piece of both [core and headline inflation] baskets was stubbornly higher. That's not new information – disappointing, but not new."
Hogan said the initial selloff was probably driven by the algorithms that steer computerized trading.
The reversal came after futures rallied on positive news out of the UK that the government would dial back some of its inflation-boosting tax-cut plans. Ironically, the S&P 500 was off by 2.39% at its session low and up by exactly that amount at its high, according to CNBC's Peter Schacknow.
"It really was a kneejerk move, especially when you juxtapose it with the pop we had before 8:30," Hogan said. "I don't think you're seeing a lot of individuals or professionals making adjustments on just one data point. The majority of moves we've seen as of late are the folks who trade on the age and do that minute by minute and not month by month."
S&P 500 posts widest trading range since March 2020
The S&P 500 was down as much as 2.39% at session lows during Thursday trading, and up as much as 2.39% at session highs. Those moves mark the widest trading range for the broader market index since March 2020.
In the history of the index, the S&P 500 has opened down more than 2% and closed up more than 2% only four times prior, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Thursday would mark only the fifth time that's happened should the current moves hold through the close, the research firm said.
— Sarah Min, Peter Schacknow
KKM's Kilburg says CPI data shows inflation slowing at a 'snail's pace'
While the consumer price index rose month over month in September, KKM Financial's Jeff Kilburg says inflation is easing.
"The strength of the CPI data was heavily weighed in lagging trend data and surging airline airfare," Kilburg said. "Inflation is trending lower albeit at a snail's pace."
On the back of the report, Kilburg says investors should stick with 2022 investing themes, finding value in energy and banks. He's also seeing growing opportunities in growth-focused areas like semiconductors.
"This is the slowest capitulation in the history of equities," Kilburg said. "Look at the VIX, it tells the story of the CPI data point today."
— Samantha Subin
Short covering may be a big factor in Thursday's market swings
Today's big intraday swing appears to be the product of traders closing out their short bets after a long period of declines for markets, said Larry Benedict of The Opportunistic Trader.
"People tried to press the short down on the low of the year, and then there was a big short-covering rally. And what I'm seeing here is just a lack of a liquidity. There's no sellers left. The market has now sellers now, for the minute," Benedict said.
The bond market, however, has seen a much softer turnaround, and that could signal that this stock rally will be short-lived.
"The rally may hold for today, but unless you get the bond market getting stability I don't see us going anywhere long-rage here, as far as a definite bottom," Benedict said.
— Jesse Pound
Oil rallies with stock market
Oil was moving in step with the stock market, rising midday despite posting drops following consumer inflation data coming in hotter than expected in the morning.
Brent crude futures were up $1.65, or 1.8%, to $94.10 a barrel. That increase comes after sliding to a low of $91.19, which is a difference of about 3% from its current price, around 9 a.m. after the inflation data was released.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 1.7%, which translates to $1.50, at $88.75 a barrel. It was previously down to a low of about $86.10 just before 10:30 a.m., which about 3% lower than its current trading level.
Precious metals also seesawed as investors digested the data.
— Alex Harring
Tech stocks rebound
Tech stocks rebounded after slumping earlier in the session on the back of another hot inflation report and dragging the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite down more than 3% at one point.
Shares of semiconductor stocks Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Micron Technology surged 2.2%, 3.5% and 3.9%, respectively, while Applied Materials jumped 4.5% despite its earlier revenue warning.
Big technology names Apple and Microsoft gained at least 1% each, while Salesforce and Meta Platforms held on to slight gains.
The move higher in tech contributed to the market's broad comeback rally.
— Samantha Subin
Treasury yields ease off of morning highs
US Treasury yields have backed off their highs, likely helping the late-morning turnaround for stocks.
The 10-year Treasury yield had eased back to 3.968% after rising as high as 4.08% earlier in the session. Still, the yield was up about six basis points for the day. A basis point is equal to 0.01 percentage points.
Short-term yields have also pulled back from their highs, but they still show dramatic moves for the day. The 2-year Treasury yield was up about 16 basis points 4.447%. It had been up more than 20 basis points earlier.
Seller exhaustion, peak inflation bet fueling the comeback, strategist says
The oversold stock market staged a massive comeback as investors bet that peak inflation is behind us, while strong corporate earnings also offered traders some solace, according to Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge.
"Stocks were crushed out of the gate, but they've since rebounded strongly thanks to seller exhaustion, a sense that actual inflation is already past its peak, and strong earnings," Crisafulli said in a note.
— Yun Li
Banks rally, adding fuel to market rebound
Bank stocks rallied to help the broader market recover from the day's lows and stage a massive comeback.
Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley were all up more than 2%. Citigroup gained 4%, and JPMorgan Chase climbed 3.2%.
The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) gained 2%, on pace to snap a six-day losing streak.
— Fred Imbert
Stocks rebound from session lows
Stocks pared some losses Thursday, moving from session lows led by a few outperforming sectors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 83 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq shed 0.78% and 1.43%, respectively.
The Dow was lifted by energy stocks, industrial names and big banks. Rising oil prices lifted energy companies such as Chevron. Walgreens Boots Alliance also jumped more than 3.5%. Banks Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan traded higher as well.
Domino's Pizza also outperformed, helping lift stocks. The company jumped more than 8% after reporting a solid outlook.
Any hope of Fed pivot is misplaced, Lazard's Temple says
Today's stronger than expected consumer price index reading is bad news for the Federal Reserve and investors hoping for a pivot away from rate hikes, according to Ron Temple, head of U.S. equity at Lazard Asset Management.
"This is not the inflation news the Fed wanted," Temple said in a note. "Despite falling used car prices, rising housing costs continue to drive inflation higher."
He pointed to parts of the report that are worrying.
"Rent and owners' equivalent rent, very sticky forms of inflation, comprised over half of the increase in prices versus the prior month," he said. "While there are signs that cost pressures for shelter have rolled over, we could continue to see pressure in future inflation readings given the lagging nature of measurement in the CPI."
Overall, the report signals more rate hikes ahead.
"Bottom line: Hopes for a pivot by the Fed remain misplaced," said Temple.
Delta shares buck market after strong demand outlook
The carrier expects to post another profit in the fourth-quarter of the year, a sign consumers are still willing to pay relatively high fares to travel despite strong inflation.
Its shares were up 2% early in the session, compared with a 1% drop in the S&P 500.
Average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages reaches highest level since April 2002
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage leapt to 6.92%, reaching its highest level in about 20 years according to Freddie Mac. Just a year ago, the average rate on these home loans was 3.05%.
Rates on 15-year fixed mortgages also ticked higher, averaging 6.09%, up from 2.30% a year ago.
The leap in home loan costs comes as the Federal Reserve continues its aggressive rate-hiking campaign to cool inflation. Indeed, the consumer price index gained 0.4% in September on a monthly basis and jumped 8.2% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Speculative stocks hit hard as rates spike
Speculative, growth-oriented stocks fell sharply on Thursday morning as Treasury yields spiked.
The rise in interest rates is particularly concerning for companies that do not have strong cash flows, because it means that it could be costly to raise more debt or roll over existing liabilities.
— Jesse Pound
Cryptocurrencies fall to October lows after CPI report
Cryptocurrency prices dropped on Thursday to new October lows after key U.S. inflation data came in hotter than expected. The price of bitcoin fell 4% to $18,388.00 and ether slid 6% to $1,216, according to Coin Metrics.
Cryptocurrencies have been trading mostly sideways since the end of August, with bitcoin hovering within $19,000. That's been a key level to watch for analysts, who say a break below it could lead to new lows below those hit in June, when bitcoin fell below $17,800 and ether fell under $900.
— Tanaya Macheel
NYSE decliners lead advancers roughly 20-1 in early trading
The number of declining stocks at the New York Stock Exchange far outpaced advancers as traders fret over the latest U.S. inflation data.
About 2,660 NYSE-listed names traded lower to start the session, while just 160 advanced. In other words, roughly 20 stocks declined for every advancer.
— Fred Imbert
Hot inflation read shouldn’t be so surprising, Cramer says
CNBC's Jim Cramer said still rising inflation was right under everyone's noses and that the numbers have shown Thursday's CPI data would be hot.
"Rents have gone up, the people who are selling houses have yet to break price, food is a factor of geography, it's not going to come down. Wages can't come down until we have more layoffs and there haven't been, there've been remarkably few of them," he said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" Thursday morning.
"I've been looking at the 2-year [U.S. Treasury yield] and thinking: haven't people seen the momentum to go to 5%?" he added. "I'm a little aghast that people are aghast. If they actually look at the numbers… they would've seen it was going to be really hot."
— Tanaya Macheel
Stocks open lower following CPI report
Stocks opened lower Thursday, continuing a slump that started after the September consumer price index report came in hotter than expected.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 500 points, or 1.73%. The S&P 500 slipped 2.10% and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.80%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury spiked above 4% as bonds sold off - yields are inverse to price.
The report signaled that inflation remains persistent even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Going forward, the central bank will likely continue its path of aggressive hikes.
Traders bet Fed will get even more aggressive, market pricing in rate close to 5%
Traders are betting the Federal Reserve will now drive interest rates close to 5% before stopping its rate hikes next spring.
Fed funds futures showed rate expectations rising sharply after the September consumer price index showed inflation running at a hotter than expected 0.4% over August.
The market now expects the fed funds rate to reach 4.9% by April, up from about 4.65% Wednesday. "We're adding in a full hike to the terminal rate from yesterday," said Bleakley Advisory Group's Peter Boockvar.
Futures for November priced in 100% expectations for a 75 basis rate hike in November, but futures also showed some traders were looking for a slightly higher 100 basis points hike. (A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point)
Boockvar said a 100 basis points (or a full percentage point) is not likely, but that the Fed could raise by 75 basis points in November and now 50 basis points in December. The market is pricing in a fed funds rate of 4.25% to 4.50% by the end of this year, he said.
"It's not going to impact the next meeting, but it impacts the meetings after that. The futures going out a few months are just getting crunched," said Wells Fargo's Michael Schumacher. "I think the story is the Fed is going to stay pretty aggressive for a longer period of time."
But because there are fears of a recession, the market is showing the Fed ends its rate hikes by the second quarter, he said.
10-year Treasury yield races past the 4% level
U.S. Treasury yields surged after the CPI report was released on Thursday morning, as traders feared that the Federal Reserve would have to hike rates even higher to combat inflation.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped 17 basis points to 4.07%. A basis point is equal to 0.01 percentage points.
The 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to Fed rate hikes, spiked more than 22 basis points to 4.51%.
Yields move opposite of bond prices. The dramatic rise in interest rates this year means there has been a big sell-off in bonds, making this year's markets painful even for investors who invested heavily in fixed income.
— Jesse Pound
There's a chance of two more 75bps rate hikes this year, Zaccarelli says
Thursday's higher than expected consumer price index report has opened up the possibility for two more 0.75 percentage point rate hike increases from the Federal Reserve this year, according to Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance.
"Not only is the Federal Reserve going to raise rates by 75 bps next month, but there is now a possibility that they will raise rates by another 75 bps in December (although our base case is that they will raise rates by 50 bps)" Zaccarelli wrote in a note Thursday. "Effectively they started the year at a 0 - 0.25% Federal Funds rate and are now on track to finish the year at 4.25 - 4.5%."
The potential for even more rate hikes is not good for stocks going forward.
"It is very difficult for this market to build a sustainable rally on the back of very high inflation and the expectation that the Federal Reserve is going to be more hawkish than ever," he said.
"We've been pretty consistent in saying that a recession was likely, that bear market rallies are likely to be unsustainable, and that it makes sense to own defensive investments, both in terms of shorter duration, higher quality with bonds and with more recession resilient sectors like healthcare and inflation-hedge industries in the energy and materials sectors," he added.
Stock futures plunge after hotter-than-expected inflation report
Stock futures plummeted Thursday morning, erasing earlier gains, after the September consumer price index report came in higher than economists expected. The CPI report showed prices rose 0.4% on a monthly basis, more than the 0.3% estimate from Dow Jones.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 530 points, or 1.80%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slumped 2.18% and 2.97%, respectively.
At the same time, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury spiked above 4% as bonds sold off. Yields are inverse to price.
Inflation rises more than expected despite rate hikes
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% in September, topping a Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% gain.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI accelerated 0.6% against the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.4% increase. Core inflation was up 6.6% from a year ago.
The hotter-than-expected inflation data comes despite Federal Reserve rate hikes aimed at taming higher prices.
— Jeff Cox
Pound jumps after report of UK reversal on tax cuts
The British pound jumped on the report from Sky News that the U.K. government is considering reversing some of its planned tax cuts. The currency is now trading above 1.126 versus the dollar and is up 1.4% versus the greenback for the day.
The mini budget announced by British Prime Minister Liz Truss last month appeared to spark turmoil in the British markets, causing the pound to fall sharply and the Bank of England to step in and backstop the government debt market.
— Jesse Pound
Futures spike on news that UK government is considering changes to tax-cut plan
Stock futures surged Thursday morning on news that the UK government is considering a U-turn for the tax cut plan introduced by British Prime Minister Liz Truss.
That sent the British pound higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures spiked and were up more than 300 points before settling up 278 points, or 0.95%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.96% and 0.64% respectively.
Delta shares jump on strong fourth-quarter forecast
Delta shares traded 5% higher in the premarket Thursday after the airline said it expects another profit for the fourth quarter. The company sees earnings per share coming in between $1 and $1.25, with revenue topping those from the fourth quarter of 2019.
— Fred Imbert, Leslie Josephs
European stocks retreat as investors brace themselves for U.S. inflation data
European markets pulled back slightly on Thursday morning as investors around the world prepare themselves for the latest U.S. inflation data.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 0.4% in early trade, with telecoms stocks shedding 1% to lead losses as most sectors and major bourses slid into the red. Autos and travel stocks nudged 0.5% higher.
- Elliot Smith
CNBC Pro: Is Meta a stock to buy or dodge? A bull and a bear face off
These are tumultuous times for Meta, with investors fleeing this year as it struggles with headwinds.
The stock in late September plunged to trade at its lowest since January 2019 – and since then has dropped even more.
Do big investors consider the Facebook parent a buy, now that its shares are so cheap, or is it one to avoid?
CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" spoke to Paul Meeks of Independent Solutions Wealth Management, and Jake Dollarhide of Longbow Asset Management, as they face off in making their bull-and-bear case for Meta.
— Weizhen Tan
What to watch for Thursday: inflation data, earnings
Investors will be watching for data points Thursday that can help predict the future health of the markets and broader economy.
They will be watching for data from the consumer price index, which gauges inflation. Estimates expect the CPI will have risen 0.3% in September, up from 0.1% in August. If that happens, inflation's annual pace would fall to 8.1% from 8.3%.
Investors will also be following corporate earnings from companies like Delta and Domino's Pizza. Market observers say earnings are becoming more important to understanding how inflation and the surging dollar will impact the markets, as disappointing earnings could trigger uneasy investors to reduce exposure. This week marks the start of a new corporate earnings season.
— Alex Harring
Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Digital World, Victoria’s Secret and more
These are some of the stocks making the biggest moves after hours:
- Digital World: Shares are surging 8.7% for the company that plans to take Truth Social, Donald Trump's media company, public on news that Google has approved the company's app for its store.
- Victoria's Secret: The clothing retailer went up 3.1% after it said earnings for the latest quarter would be on the higher end of previous guidance.
— Alex Harring
Stock futures open slightly up
Stock futures rose slightly at open as investors look to a data-filled latter half of the week.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 61 points, which translates to 0.21%.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 also increased 0.21%. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.18%
— Alex Harring