US Treasurys

10-year Treasury yield holds near 4% in volatile trading

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell slightly on Tuesday as the bond market battled through a choppy trading day.

The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 2 basis points 3.996% It had fallen as low as 3.961% earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury was down about three basis points at 4.429%. The 30-year Treasury yield was little changed near 4.011% after being up earlier in the day.

Yields move opposite of price. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

Treasurys


U.S. stock markets have rallied at the start of the week as U.S. banks reported solid earnings and tech stocks climbed.

Investors have been keeping a close eye on earnings to assess the impact of persistent inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on businesses.

Concerns about continuous rate hikes dragging the U.S. economy into a recession have been growing ahead of the next Fed meeting in early November, where the central bank is expected to implement a 75 basis point rate hike even amid growing signs that the U.S. economy is slowing.

"That tipping point is coming, likely in the form of a first pivot towards a slower pace of policy rate increases," Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said in a note on Tuesday. "At this juncture, the likelihood that October and November inflation figures show meaningful downturn is low, potentially pushing that policy rate deceleration into 2023."

On Monday, Bloomberg economists adjusted their economic outlook to forecast a 100% chance of recession in the next 12 months.

On the data front, homebuilder sentiment fell more than expected in October. Rising yields have driven up mortgage rates, hurting housing demand.