Tesla is testing a key chart level first reached after being added to the S&P 500

Published Thu, Oct 20 202212:54 PM EDT

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. With one eye on the Treasury market and another on corporate results, the S & P 500 is sticky around the 3,700 level for a third straight day. Bond yields are up small, as mixed economic data and stretched technical conditions invite predictions of a potential near-term top, with some familiarly hawkish Fed speak as a counterweight. Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker helped undercut a morning rally with a message – repeated endlessly for weeks by Fed folks – that it's too early to slow or stop tightening. The S & P 500 rebound from the Sept. 30 and Oct. 13 CPI-reaction low has cleared an initial hurdle, crossing above its 20-day average, something it had failed at three times since mid-August. The 3800 level is the early-October high and the lower end of the market's prevailing April-September range. The logical sequence might not make too much sense, but yields slipped and stocks perked up after the 10 a.m. release of a weak Conference Board Leading Economic Index report. There is now a solid LEI peak in place and the pre-recessionary clock has been ticking for a bit now. The lead times can be long (two years from 2005-2007) between LEI peak and formal recession. And there are distinct circumstances (still-strong labor conditions, the LEI coming of extremely strong levels of activity, the reopening boom-bust recoil in manufacturing), but the history is what it is. Semis up almost 3% Thursday and 6% for the week show how the most punished and oversold groups getting the greatest relief. A high bar for the sector to prove it's basing but a help nonetheless. Tesla is struggling after a mixed quarter and the expectation that Elon Musk has more to sell to close his Twitter acquisition. The stock looks technically challenged, trading near half its peak price and now back to levels first reached in the loopy run-up in December 2020, as traders giddily celebrated a stock split and the stock's entry into the S & P 500. It's an interesting spot here. Market breadth is modestly positive for now, with the VIX pinned at 30, grudgingly off its highs as bond volatility and generalized unease persists.

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