Tech stocks are tumbling but one fund manager still loves Microsoft. Here’s why

Published Thu, Oct 27 20228:42 PM EDT

Tech stocks have tumbled this week, as investor optimism fades following disappointing results from some of the sector's biggest names. Investors were looking to the likes of Alphabet , Microsoft , Texas Instruments and Meta Platforms f or signs that the worst of the downturn was behind them. Instead, they were left disappointed, as the third quarter updates from the tech giants highlighted mounting pressures across the spectrum, as a slowing global economy hit spending on digital advertising and enterprise software, as well as demand for chips. The resulting fallout in the stock market was palpable. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite snapped a three-day winning streak on Wednesday, after having climbed 5.5% in the three prior trading sessions. Despite the gloomy outlook for the sector, fund manager Brian Arcese is still bullish on selected stocks within the sector — including Microsoft. The portfolio manager at Foord Asset Management co-manages the Foord International Fund and the Foord Global Equity Fund. Both funds hold Microsoft shares. Arcese is standing by the stock — even after the company delivered its weakest quarterly sales growth in five years on the back of a strong U.S. dollar and a decline in sale of personal computers. He noted that growth can be bumpy on a quarterly basis, and U.S. dollar strength has been a common headwind for many companies. Microsoft's slowing revenue growth is also partially "a function of the law of large numbers," according to Arcese. "As it becomes larger and larger, then it's much more difficult to grow at a 40% plus rate on a year-on-year basis. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see growth moderating going forward," he said. Reasonable valuation Arcese said it was important to consider the valuation of the company, "and we do think that at a low 20x earnings multiple it's a reasonable multiple to pay for a company with this combination of businesses." He noted that many of the company's underlying businesses have "quite strong moats around them." For instance, the Office 365 franchise is becoming "increasingly entrenched" in the lives of the working professional and the average consumer. Microsoft has successfully raised prices for the product at very little underlying churn to the business, he added. Arcese is also bullish on Microsoft's cloud computing business, which he said is growing at "a low 40% range relatively consistently." On the gaming front, he expects Microsoft's proposed acquisition of video game publisher Activision Blizzard to go through. The $68.7 billion all-cash deal is pending approvals from shareholders and regulators, which is expected to push the closing to Jun. 2023. The gaming company is among the top five holdings in the Foord International Fund, which has a 5.1% allocation to Activision as of the end of September. Read more These 'all-weather' stocks can protect your portfolio in a recession: Outperforming fund manager Stocks and bonds are struggling. Give these strategies a shot instead, say Goldman and others Some global banks have posted bumper profits — but don’t buy their shares yet, strategist says Shares of Microsoft have not been spared from this year's tech rout, with the stock down about 31% so far. "I think this stock is also sold off this year as a result of real rates rising. You are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The stock is a solid long term defensive holding, so we are really quite comfortable owning it and we have a reasonable position," Arcese said. The Foord International Fund is down 5.8% in 2022 as of the end of September, according to the fund's commentary , beating the MSCI World index which is down around 25% over the same period. The Foord Global Equity fund has fared less well, although did manage to just outperform the market this year, down 23.3% as of the end for September, the fund's latest factsheet showed.