Goldman says dividend growth stocks win in recessions – here are 10

Published Mon, Oct 31 202211:19 AM EDTUpdated Mon, Oct 31 20221:11 PM EDT

Despite the economy's expansion in the third quarter, some cautious investors are still wary that a recession is either underway or will soon land. But Goldman Sachs has a specific strategy to take advantage of this unfolding scenario. Economists at the firm expect real U.S. gross domestic product to slow from 1.9% this year to 1.1% in 2023 as the Federal Reserve continues keeping financial conditions tight in an effort to bring down inflation. Typically, stocks with high cash returns outperform in periods of slowing economic growth, Goldman's chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, said in a note Monday. Those planning for more disruption should prioritize stocks with a decent dividend yield and, perhaps more importantly, dividend growth. The former reflects how much a company pays out in dividends each year, while the latter measures how much that dividend grows over time. "In the mid-1970s, high dividend yield stocks struggled to compete with rising cash yields and lagged the S & P 500," Kostin said. "By contrast, companies with the highest dividend growth outperformed even as bond yields climbed as high as 17%." "Investors have historically been skeptical of companies making large capital investments at a time when the economy is slowing and potentially on the verge of recession," Kostin highlighted. "Stocks with high cash returns outperformed stocks with high capex and R & D around the last three recessions. This week's results from META provide one case study; the stock fell 25% the day after reporting earnings, likely in part because investors were skeptical of the company's large investments guidance." Goldman recommends its recently refreshed basket of dividend growth stocks. The median stock in it offers a higher 2023 earnings dividend yield than the S & P 500 (3.8% compared with 1.9%) as well as faster projected dividend growth through 2024 (9% compared with the S & P 500 median of 6%). It also trades at a 34% valuation discount relative to the median S & P 500 constituent. Here are 10 of the stocks in the basket: Offering the fastest growth in the group is the newly added Targa Resources , a midstream energy infrastructure corporation. Its 2% dividend yield is growing at a rate of 31% annually. Targa's dividend growth is closely followed by retailer Lowe's , another recent addition, whose payout is expanding 30% a year. Other new adds to the list include Pennsylvania utility PPL and health stock Medtronic , as well as FedEx , PNC Financial and Coca-Cola . Coke has a whopping 70% payout ratio, a measure of how much of its earnings are paid out as dividends. Verizon Communications carries the highest dividend yield on the list, at 7%, with dividend growth of 2%. Its payout ratio is 51%. Tech companies make up the biggest sector represented in the basket and have some of the highest payout ratios. NXP Semiconductors and Microchip Technology have some of the fastest dividend growth for the sector, at 22% each.