After the bizarre Fed press conference yesterday, there was much chest-thumping from the punditry class loudly trumpeting how much they knew — just knew — that the move off the recent lows was nothing but a bear market rally. "A retest of the October lows, particularly Growth centric NDX [Nasdaq 100], becomes base case," Julian Emanuel, a senior managing director at Evercore ISI, said. Thanks, but this is not exactly a bold call. The Nasdaq 100 is only 4% off its low. "The Fed's decision and latest guidance are consistent with our recent view that it is too early to position for a dovish pivot in monetary policy," Mark Haefele, the chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note to clients. "Overall, we do not believe the conditions are in place for a sustained equity market rally." The question is, what psychological effect will this have on investors? The Fed is saying it will keep hiking into at least the first quarter of 2023, and may stay higher for longer until it sees economic growth slowing and inflation abating. This leaves everyone still hanging, debating the extent of the economic slowdown. For strategists and analysts, the psychological effect may be earnings estimates will continue to come down, something Haefele acknowledged. "We now expect global earnings per share to fall by 3% in 2023, versus the bottom-up consensus for 5% growth," Haefele said. While the November Fed meeting does clear away some uncertainty (the VIX dropped Wednesday), the election next week is the next anxiety point for the markets. "Any lack of clarity with regard to Senate control or loud questions about election integrity increases the likelihood that SPX [S & P 500] joins NDX in the retest of the lows," Emanuel said.