Why the ultimate low in stocks not in yet, according to this market strategist

Published Fri, Nov 4 202210:34 AM EDT

The market has not hit its low of the cycle yet thanks to the spike in the 2-year Treasury yields and a looming recession, according to Canaccord Genuity. The S & P 500 is down more than 20% year to date, and investors have been searching for signs of a bottom in every bounce. However, the economy is feeling the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes "into a generationally levered system with high inventories and slowing demand," Tony Dwyer, the firm's chief market strategist, wrote in a note Friday. In other words, there could be more downside ahead. The central bank announced another 0.75 percentage point increase on Wednesday . Chair Jerome Powell also said achieving a soft landing has become more difficult as the central bank tries to tame inflation. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note is now at its highest level since 2007 after the Fed's hike and Friday's strong job data . "The speed of rate hikes has caused more than 75% of possible U.S. Treasury (UST) Yield Curves to invert, and it would be historically unique over the last 50 years to not have a recession after more than 55% were inverted," Dwyer said. "To that end, we continue to believe the S & P 500 (SPX) has yet to see 'the' bottom of the cycle." Since 1957, the market hasn't seen the absolute bear market low before the cycle peak in the 2-year Treasury yield, he said. Also since that time, the the S & P 500 hasn't bottomed before an economic downturn began. Instead, the S & P 500 reaches bottoms out a median 23.5 weeks after the start of a recession, Dwyer said. Additionally, history shows that when the S & P 500 has been down more than 20% through the first three quarters of the year, it has a positive fourth quarter, he added. That means there may be more room to the upside by year-end, he said. "Given our cautious fundamental view, Fed actions to date, and history of major market bottoms, we see no compelling reason to add risk despite the possibility of a bit more year-end upside," Dwyer said. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.