Barclays' playbook for the coming recession: Defensive stocks that could still gain 20%

Published Wed, Nov 9 20221:14 PM EST

There are still plays to be made even if the broader stock market struggles next year, Barclays says. Indeed, some names could have upside of more than 20%. Barclays' Terence Malone said to expect a shallow recession in 2023 as the outlook for the market remains "extremely challenging" due to geopolitics, higher interest rates and an ongoing reversal of globalization. "Our U.S. Equity Strategy team believes that the outlook for equities through 2023 remains extremely challenging," Malone said in a Monday note to clients. "We are entering a significant transition phase marked by increased geopolitical risk, higher rates, and an ongoing reversal of globalization, with the Fed treading a fine line between an overshoot or a premature pivot." That will added on to stress already weighing on capital markets from the surging dollar and tightening liquidity. Malone said potential downsides would likely come from cuts in earnings growth over the next several quarters. He noted that his team doesn't think the Federal Reserve will come to the market's rescue unless there is a major catalyst. With that in mind, Malone screened for overweight stocks that will be defensive in a recessionary environment, looking at risk-reward ratios, upside trends and volatility. The average estimated upside of Barclays' picks is 20% as of Nov. 1 – with one poised to gain more than 60%. Animal pharmaceutical company Zoetis has the biggest potential upside among Barclays' list at 64%. When reporting third-quarter earnings last week, the company missed expectations for per-share earnings and revenue, according to FactSet estimates, while also lowering its fourth-quarter guidance. The stock has lost about 44% this year. Gaming company Take-Two Interactive , which has seen its share value drop this week after lowering guidance and missing expectations for revenue, is also expected to see a large upside. The stock's price target of $175 represents a 50% upside from the start of November and is 87% higher than where it closed on Tuesday. It is down 47% this year. PepsiCo , on the other hand, has been able to raise its forecasts as it c ontinues to beat Wall Street expectations on the back of higher prices for products . The maker of popular snack and drink brands such as Pepsi, Gatorade and Lay's has gained about 4% this year – noticeably beating the S & P 500 , which is down 19% – and has a potential upside of 2%. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.