Baird upgrades AMD, says a new product can drive the chip stock nearly 40% higher

Published Mon, Nov 14 20227:44 AM ESTUpdated Mon, Nov 14 20228:50 AM EST

A new product from Advanced Micro Devices is inspiring optimism from Baird. Analyst Tristan Gerra upgraded the microchip maker's stock to outperform and raised his price target to $100 per share from $65. The new target implies upside of 38.2% from Friday's close. What's driving Gerra's optimism is AMD's positivity around the performance of Genoa, its latest data center processor. It has improved performance and energy-saving capabilities compared with prior processors. "Genoa's very significant performance step up could translate into an acceleration in market share gains for AMD in 2023, along with significantly higher pricing and a higher gross margin profile," he said in a note to clients. And it would reinforce the broader technology's "performance leadership for years to come." Interest in AMD is growing as a result of Genoa's performance, said Gerra. He pointed to a partnership with VMWare on a migration platform. He added that he's bullish on AMD based on the opportunities that will come from the next two-year device refresh cycle, which could mark a shift away from competitor Intel's servers. Gerra said it will be years before Intel's processors could catch up with Genoa. Gerra noted the company could be impacted by manufacturing challenges, adding that a chill in customer adoption for the specific product or for demand in personal computers more broadly amid inflationary pressures could also weigh on performance. He wasn't the only one growing bullish on AMD. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri also upgraded the stock to buy, saying it had key indicators such as inventory momentum and how the stock's performance compares to broader price change trends have turned in its favor. Arcuri set a price target of $95, which is slightly lower than Gerra's but still shows upside of 31.2%. "Investor inquiries around 'the cycle' in the past 7-10 days have reached a nervous fever pitch as we sense that most are still heavily underweight semis," Arcuri said in the note. The stock was up 3.3% in premarket trading. It has lost 49.7% since the start of 2022. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.