Stocks fell Monday in a volatile session to start a short trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Fears that China may again ramp up Covid restrictions after reporting deaths from the virus weighed on markets, sending energy stocks and oil prices lower. Traders also looked for further signals from the Federal Reserve about future interest rate hikes.
The S&P 500 shed 0.39% to 3,949.94, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.09% to end the day at 11,024.51. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 45.41 points, or 0.13%, to 33,700.28, though losses on the index were mitigated by a jump in Disney shares.
"That puts a dent in the global economic recovery story that we were hoping would be ushered in with a reopen in China," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial.
Shares of Disney rose 6.3% after the company announced that former CEO Bob Iger would return to the helm of the entertainment giant, replacing Bob Chapek immediately. Iger's return to Disney ends a brief and rocky tenure for Chapek, who took over the CEO role in February 2020.
The recent bear market rally is likely on hold due to a shorter trading week for the Thanksgiving holiday, which may see increased volatility and lower volumes as traders take time off. Earlier in the month, stocks rose with the October consumer price index reading and gained some steam with last week's reading on wholesale prices.
Traders continue to monitor messaging from Federal Reserve officials after last week when they reassessed their optimism around the possibility of slowing inflation. On Monday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated that rate hikes will continue, but that they may be smaller going forward.
The market will get more information about the central bank's path ahead to digest when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks Tuesday.
"With 375 basis points of Fed rate hikes so far, an inverted yield curve, spikes in inflation, and commodity prices still a part of the narrative, we can all but conclude that we are late in the economic cycle," Liz Young, SoFi's head of investment strategy, said in a note this weekend.
The New York Stock Exchange will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, and will have a shortened trading day on Friday. This week, traders will be digesting further speeches from Federal Reserve leaders as well as earnings reports from Best Buy, Nordstrom, Dick's Sporting Goods and Dollar Tree.
Stocks fall Monday to start short holiday week
Stocks slipped Monday in a volatile trading session to kick off the short holiday week.
The S&P 500 shed 0.39% to 3,949.94 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.09% to end the day at 11,024.51. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 45.41 points, or 0.13%, to 33,700.28, though losses on the index were mitigated by a jump in Disney shares, which surged more than 6%.
Disney jumped after the company announced that former CEO Bob Iger would replace Bob Chapek.
Apple iPhone 14 Pro delivery lead times still lengthening a touch, JPMorgan says
The ability of Apple customers to receive new Iphone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max models is being pushed back to January on a global basis, JPMorgan analysts led by Samik Chatterjee (overweight, $200 price target) wrote in a report Monday.
"[L]ead times for the Pro models have either remained elevated or lengthened slightly relative to last week, and delivery dates are inching towards January 2023 as opposed to consumers being able to receive any new orders in the remaining days of 2022," JPMorgan said.
"Delivery times are now 17 days higher than the lowest lead times achieved 4 weeks ago, suggesting that challenges related to an ongoing Covid outbreak in Zhengzhou, China, are persisting, and that supply continues to run well below demand," the bank analysts wrote.
JPMorgan keeps an in-house "Apple Availability Tracker" that pools delivery dates of the 14 Series on a weekly basis since pre-order availability.
— Scott Schnipper
Interactive Brokers launches overnight trading for ETFs
Interactive Brokers announced Monday that it is launching overnight trading on its platform for 24 of the most popular U.S. ETFs, including the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY), the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).
Rob Garfield, director of marketing at Interactive Brokers, said that the move would be particularly attractive to clients in Asia, which account for nearly 40% of the firm's users.
"85% of our new accounts come from outside the U.S. We're really a global broker, so giving people the ability to access U.S. markets in their trading hours is a big deal to them," Garfield said.
The overnight trading will take place on an off-exchange platform called IBKR Eos ATS, where there will be market makers helping with liquidity, Garfield said.
Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, said that the overnight capabilities could be attractive but investors should keep in mind that they are not trading on a traditional exchange.
"It's a good option for investors looking to manage risk overnight. They might consider it a worthy tool, but I hope we don't see a new breed of day traders become night traders. Market makers and institutions are much better at trading at dark pools than investors," Armour said.
Shares of Interactive Brokers were little changed on the session.
— Jesse Pound
A year after the Nasdaq's record high, these stocks that could lead the battered index higher
It's been over a year since the Nasdaq hit its record high of 16,057.44 on Nov. 19, 2021.
In the months since, the tech-heavy index has tumbled roughly 30% as investors rotate out of growth stocks once offering steep valuations.
But despite a difficult year for the sector, there's value to be found for investors that look carefully.
Check out CNBC Pro's latest screen on the Nasdaq 100 names most loved that offer a solid upside and could lead the tech-heavy index higher in the months ahead.
— Samantha Subin
Stocks fall in last hour of trading
All three major indexes slumped heading into the final hour of trading Monday. The week is a short one due to the Thanksgiving holiday - the New York Stock Exchange will be closed on Thursday and only open for a half day on Friday.
Stocks were mostly in the red during the trading session with the exception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which moved up and down throughout the day, boosted by Disney.
The S&P 500 shed 0.37% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 8.2 points, or 0.02%, though losses on the index were mitigated by a jump in Disney shares.
Near-term picture could get ‘muddled’ heading into Thanksgiving week, says Goldman’s Hussey
The S&P 500's 10% gain this quarter could soon draw more scrutiny if growth data continues to disappoint, Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey said in a note Monday.
"The picture could get a bit muddled in the near-term as we move through a lower trading activity Thanksgiving week… but beyond that, the bear market is likely to persist as conditions typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached," he said. "We expect markets to transition into a 'Hope' phase of the next bull market at some point in 2023, but from a lower level."
Hussey also added that there may be a shift from rates to growth and valuation underway in now that "the chances that the U.S. will avoid a recession appear to have risen in recent weeks on the back of a favorable October CPI reading."
— Tanaya Macheel
Sharp S&P 500 rallies this year are a 'harbinger for better times,' Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus says
Recent sharp rallies in the S&P 500 could signal that better days are ahead for the market in 2023, according to Oppenheimer's Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus.
"Three double-digit rallies this year in the S&P 500 argue a case that as difficult as 2022 has been for equity markets, there's enough resilience to suggest that this year could be a harbinger for better times ahead," he said in a note to clients Monday
During those rallies — which occurred in March, this summer, and October — the benchmark index rallied roughly 11%, 17.4%, and 10.9%, respectively.
Recent inflation data also indicates that the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle is doing its job even though the labor market remains resilient, Stoltzfus said. Retail sales data showing a resilient consumer also suggests the U.S. economy may see positive GDP growth in the fourth quarter, he added.
"In our view, the Fed will be looking to avoid pushing the US economy into a recession if it can avoid it and might even be able to skirt a recession this cycle so long as factors over which it has little or no control keep improving," he wrote.
— Samantha Subin
Tesla falls to lowest level since 2020
Shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla slumped more than 6% Monday to its lowest level since July 2020 amid a broader selloff in technology shares.
The automaker has been under pressure since its CEO, Elon Musk, took over Twitter.
Fed's Daly says impact of rate hikes are bigger than they appear
The Federal Reserve has moved historically quick to tighten financial conditions, but markets are acting like the central bank is moving even faster, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Monday.
That's important, she added, because the relationship between the actual fed funds rate and what Daly called a "proxy rate" on the actual impact of the Fed's moves can help tell policymakers when they need to stop raising interest rates.
"As we make decisions about future rate adjustments, it's going to be increasingly important to remain conscious of this gap between the printed funds rate and the proxy funds rate," she said. "If we ignore this gap, it raises the chance of tightening too much, this overcorrection that we want to avoid."
Daly said San Francisco Fed research shows that the proxy rate is more like 6%, compared to the fed funds rate range of 3.75%-4%. The proxy rate takes into consideration public and private borrowing rates and credit spreads, among other things.
Markets expect the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate another 0.5 percentage point in December, then increase a few more times in 2023 until the funds rate hits around 5%-5.25%. Daly has said she also expects the fed funds rate to hit around 5% and remain high until inflation starts coming down.
Stocks making the biggest moves midday
These are some of the companies making the biggest moves in midday trading:
- Carvana — Shares of the used car company slid 13% after Argus downgraded the stock to sell from hold and said Carvana has lost some of its competitive advantage as traditional dealerships grow online sales.
- Disney — Shares jumped 5% after the company reappointed Bob Iger as chief executive officer, effective immediately and 11 months after he left Disney.
- Energy stocks — Energy stocks were the biggest losers in the S&P 500 midday after oil prices fell to their lowest levels since early January following a report that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producers are discussing an output increase. Diamondback Energy and Halliburton fell 4% and 2.9%, respectively.
Check out our full list of movers here.
— Tanaya Macheel
Shares of fintech Dave jump as much as 13% after CEO says company has enough cash
Banking app provider Dave rose as much as 13% Monday after CEO Jason Wilk told CNBC the money-burning company has enough cash to make it to profitability a year from now.
"We're trying to dispel the myth of, 'Hey, this company does not have enough money to make it through,'" Wilk said in reaction to the precipitous decline in his company's stock this year.
The gains moderated and were last up about 10% at midday. Shares of the Los Angeles-based company are highly volatile and Monday's gain was only the largest since Nov. 11.
JPMorgan says don't chase Disney
Shares of Disney are now well off their highs of the day, up about 5.5% for the session. The stock was up nearly 10% in morning trading.
JPMorgan analyst Philip Cusick cautioned clients against overreacting to the news that CEO Bob Iger is returning, saying he was "reluctant to recommend chasing shares here."
— Jesse Pound
Oil rebounds from lows of the day after Saudi Arabia denies potential production boost
Oil prices regained some of their losses, recovering from lows of the day after Saudi Arabia disputed a Wall Street Journal report that said OPEC+ was considering a 500,000 barrel per day production boost.
The move would have reversed a cut from last month and potentially eased tensions with the U.S. as well as keeping the flow of oil up amid the war in Ukraine.
West Texas Intermediate shed $1.75 or 2.19% to trade at $78.33 per barrel. Brent crude was down $2.14, or 2.44%, at $85.48.
WTI hits lowest level since January
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures hit their lowest level since Jan. 3 on Monday after a Wall Street Journal report said that Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ are weighing an increase to production that would amount to 500,000 barrels per day. In addition, China Covid-19 concerns weighed on oil markets.
WTI hit a session low 75.48 and is down roughly 12% since the start of November, putting it on pace for its worst monthly stretch since November 2021. Gains for the benchmark are also close to turning negative for the year.
The decline in oil dragged down energy stocks, with the S&P 500 sector shedding more than 4%. SLB, Halliburton, Marathon Oil and Diamondback Energy were among the biggest losers, tumbling at least 7% each.
WTI is currently trading 42% below its 52-week high of 130.50 in March.
— Samantha Subin, Gina Francolla.
Bank of America says market could stay range-bound
After a recent bounce on increasing hope that inflation may be peaking, Bank of America thinks stocks could stay range-bound going forward.
"Financial markets are at a crossroads as narratives build up around two very different outcomes that depend on data prints over the next few months, as well as the reaction function of central banks, especially the Fed," strategists led by Ritesh Samadhiya said in a note Monday.
"The first is a benign outcome where the Fed executes a 'soft' landing by cooling inflation without pushing the unemployment rate too high. The other, relatively gloomier scenario, is one of a global recession, which suggests further potential downside to risk assets," the note said. "The high likelihood for both, as suggested by leading indicators, hints at a middle-of-the-path outcome that could see markets range-bound in the near future."
— Michael Bloom, Fred Imbert
Consumers appetite for credit cards rises, refi outlook slumps, survey shows
Americans are less likely to apply for auto loans or mortgage refinancing in the year ahead but more likely to try to get a credit card, according to a survey Monday from the New York Federal Reserve.
Respondents to the central bank's quarterly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a record-low level of 4.9% expecting to refinance their home loans, according to data going back to 2013.
At the same time, those who say they're likely to apply for a credit card increased a full percentage point to 13.6% from a year ago. The average likelihood of those expecting to seek an auto loan fell to 10.9%, a decline of half a percentage point.
Overall, the level of those expecting to apply for some form of credit fell slightly to 28%, down less than a percentage point from a year ago.
In terms of "financial fragility," a total 67.5% said they would raise $2,000 if confronted with an unexpected expense over the past month, a level that has remained "remarkably flat" since 2015, according to the New York Fed.
These two retailers are JPMorgan's favorite picks this holiday season
JPMorgan says there are two retail stocks investors should consider betting on this holiday season.
Both companies, according to the bank, should benefit from consumer trade-down and weather the macro headwinds ahead.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more on the bank's favorite retail stock picks here.
— Samantha Subin
Morgan Stanley says credit-card delinquencies are rising at the fastest pace since 2009
The percentage of credit-card borrowers who are at least 30 days behind on their payments is rising at the fastest pace since 2009, according to Morgan Stanley analysts led by Betsy Graseck.
The metric, closely watched by analysts as an indication of consumers' financial health, rose more than 50 basis points from a year earlier, according to a chart in a report published Monday. The analysts based their findings on monthly master trust reports released by card issuers including American Express, Bank of America, Citigroup, Discover and JPMorgan Chase.
"Today's acceleration in delinquency deterioration is being driven by high inflation coupled with declining consumer savings," Graseck wrote. "Our outlook for delinquency deterioration is based on consumer savings continuing to decline while unemployment inches up to 4.3% by year-end 2023."
Consumers, fortified with high employment levels and Covid stimulus payments, had seen late payments and defaults fall to record lows during the pandemic. That began to change in May of this year as delinquencies began ticking up, according to the analysts. Delinquency rates are nearly back at 2019 average levels and are expected to reach 3% by the end of next year.
The bank's findings align with Federal Reserve data from last week showing that third-quarter card balances jumped by the most in 20 years amid rising prices and strong consumer demand.
Goldman still sees path to a 'soft or at least 'softish' landing for the Fed
Goldman Sachs economists think the Federal Reserve can bring inflation under control without causing a recession.
That doesn't mean there won't be pain — the Wall Street firm still expects a weak economy ahead — but it could be limited as the early signs so far suggest the central bank can achieve its hoped-for "soft landing."
"The initial steps along this path have been successful, but there is much further to go in 2023," Goldman economist David Mericle said in a client note over the weekend. "We expect another year of below-potential growth and labor market rebalancing to solve much but not all of the underlying inflation problem. Unlike consensus, we do not expect a recession."
Goldman sees GDP growth of just 1% or so in 2023, a looser labor market and lower wage growth. That all will come as the Fed raises interest rates a few more times, taking its benchmark borrowing rate to a range of 5%-5.25% from the current range of 3.75%-4%.
One reason for the firm's optimism is it sees inflation in its current form as not as bad as in the early 1980s, the last time it was this high, with some factors likely to abate on their own in the months ahead.
"Achieving a soft or at least 'softish' landing is in large part a question of calibrating policy tightening correctly, and while this isn't easy, it has gone well so far this year," Mericle wrote.
Rail workers move closer to strike after one union rejects deal
One of the largest railroad labor unions rejected down a tentative deal with management, increasing the odds of a strike next month.
The SMART-TD union rejected the deal, while the BLET ratified the deal but said it would honor the picket line. Two other large railroad unions are already schedule to strike on Dec. 5.
Railroad stocks were little changed in early trading.
—Lori Ann LaRocco, Jesse Pound
Barclays downgrades Williams-Sonoma and RH
"We are downgrading both WSM and RH on a weakening housing cycle that we believe will have a trickle-down impact on home furnishing spending over the next 12 to 24 months and high-end wallet pressure," said in a Monday note.
— Sarah Min
Stocks mixed at market open Monday
Stocks were mixed Monday morning at the start of a short trading week for the Thanksgiving holiday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged at market open, trading up more than 100 points, or 0.30%, led by Disney. Shares of the entertainment company popped more than 8% after it announced that former CEO Bob Iger will replace Bob Chapek immediately.
Elsewhere, stocks slumped as investors look ahead to more earnings reports and speeches from Federal Reserve leaders this week. The S&P 500 fell 0.20% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.26%.
U.S. dollar on pace for weakest month since summer 2020
The U.S. dollar index is down 3.36% so far in November, on pace for the worst month since July 2020, when the index slumped 4.15%.
Meanwhile, December gold contracts are ahead 6.3% month-to-date, on pace for its first up month in eight, and its best month since May 2021.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF is almost 12.5% higher in November, on course for the best single month since last February.
Meanwhile, Dr. Copper's having a good month too. December copper contracts are ahead 6.6% in November, also its first monthly gain in eight months. One big copper producer, Freeport-McMoRan, is higher by almost 15% in November.
— Scott Schnipper, Gina Francolla
Amazon is JPMorgan’s best idea this holiday shopping season
Amazon is well-positioned into the holiday shopping season, said JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth, who named the online retailer his best idea.
He's estimating the e-commerce penetration of adjusted retail sales this holiday season at 22.5%, above last year's 22%.
"AMZN maintains ~40% share of US e-comm & looks well-positioned after doubling its fulfillment network & workforce since the pandemic began, while faster delivery speeds, higher in-stock levels, & earlier timing of holiday promotions should spur demand," Anmuth wrote in a note Sunday.
Amazon shares are down 43% year to date.
— Michelle Fox
Berkshire Hathaway ups stakes in Japan’s five leading trading houses to over 6%
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has raised its stakes in Japan's five leading trading houses by at least 1 percentage point to more than 6%, regulatory filings showed on Monday.
The companies — Itochu Corp., Marubeni Corp., Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co., and Sumitomo Corp —involve in a wide range of products and services, including energy, machinery, chemicals, food, finance and banking.
Buffett first acquired these stocks on his 90th birthday in August 2020 through regular purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The legendary investor previously said he intends to hold the investments for the long term, and that it may increase its holdings in any of the companies up to a maximum of 9.9%, depending on price.
Marubeni and Mitsubishi shares jumped more than 2% after the news on Monday. Sumitomo and Itochu shares rose about 1%. These stocks have all rallied double digits this year, outperforming the Japanese broader market.
— Yun Li
Coinbase shares slide 4% premarket
Shares of crypto exchange Coinbase dropped more than 4% in premarket trading Monday in the wake of rival FTX's bankruptcy. The stock is down more than 30% this month alone.
Cowen noted that Coinbase's average daily spot trading volumes remain above pre-FTX turmoil levels. Bank of America said Coinbase is different from FTX, but faces headwinds amid overall skepticism about the cryptocurrency market.
— Yun Li
CNBC Pro: Goldman Sachs upgrades this new shoe stock, predicts 65% upside
Goldman Sachs upgraded shares of this Swiss footwear company to buy from neutral, saying investors can expect "rapid growth" from the stock on the strength of its brand.
According to the investment firm, the stock can surge more than 65% from here.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read about the call here.
— Sarah Min
Disney, Carvana and Coinbase: stocks making the biggest moves premarket
Disney continued to lead premarket moves Monday after the entertainment company announced that Bob Iger would return as CEO, replacing Bob Chapek.
Carvana slumped after a downgrade, and shares of Coinbase slipped as crypto prices continue to fall after FTX fallout. Earnings season also continues, with shares of J.M. Smucker rising after a solid report Monday before the bell.
—Carmen Reinicke, Peter Schacknow
Bitcoin hovers near 1-week low
Cryptocurrency prices continued to slide amid pressure on the entire industry stemming from the FTX fallout. Bitcoin slumped 3.6% to trade below $16,000, near its one-week low, on Monday.
Ether fell as well, slipping as much as 7%.
Since Nov. 6, when Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said his company would sell all of their FTX tokens, the crypo market has undergone a major route. The market has shed roughly $260 billion of value.
—Carmen Reinicke, Arjun Kharpal
Bank stock Comerica has upside, Raymond James says
Raymond James analyst Michael Rose upgraded Comerica to outperform from market perform, saying the stock can pop more than 20%.
"We are upgrading CMA shares to Outperform and establishing an $85 price target following the recent selloff in the stock post earnings juxtaposed with its relatively solid fundamental positioning heading into a potential recession," Rose wrote in a Monday note.
— Sarah Min
Disney shares up 9% in premarket trade on Bob Iger return
The move came after Iger's handpicked successor, Bob Chapek, came under fire for his management of the company, having last week announced plans to cut costs at the company's increasingly burdened streaming service following a big miss on Wall Street's earnings expectations.
- Elliot Smith
European markets slightly lower as investors gauge economic outlook
European markets were marginally lower on Monday as investors continued to assess inflationary pressures and the possible trajectory of central bank interest rates.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 slid 0.2% in early trade, with basic resources dropping 2.1% to lead losses as most sectors traded in the red. Utilities bucked the trend to add 0.6%.
- Elliot Smith
Disney names Bob Iger as CEO again, effective immediately
Disney has re-appointed Bob Iger as its CEO, effective immediately, after previous CEO Bob Chapek was criticized for his management of the company, which included plans for cost cutting.
The company announced in a late Sunday statement that Chapek is stepping down, and Disney's board chair Susan Arnold thanked him for his service.
Shares of Disney have dropped more than 40% so far this year, as of Friday's close. The stock hit a 52-week low on Nov. 9.
Read the full story here.
— Mike Calia, Alex Sherman
CNBC Pro: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson predicts the S&P 500's bottom, calls it a 'terrific buying opportunity'
Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson says we're in the "final stages" of the bear market, but the situation will remain challenging for a while longer.
He predicts when — and at what level — the S&P 500 will hit a "new low."
— Weizhen Tan
Markets are watching for more clues on Fed hikes and the economy in the week ahead
Investors may be a bit more cautious in the week ahead, with stocks seeking direction in quiet trading and the bond market's warnings about recession getting louder.
The Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday should mean markets will likely be quiet Wednesday and Friday. Traders will be monitoring reports on Black Friday holiday shopping for feedback on the consumer.
"It's really a week where data dependence is the key phrase," said Julian Emanuel, senior managing director at Evercore ISI. "The bias [for stocks] is higher unless data continues to deteriorate and the Fed stays on its hawkish slant... which has clearly been reinforced in the last 48 hours."
Check out our full deep dive on what to expect in the week ahead here.
— Patti Domm, Tanaya Macheel
Stock futures open little changed Sunday night
Stock futures opened little changed Sunday evening ahead of another batch of retail earnings to kick off a shortened week for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 41 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures inched up by 0.03% and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.2%.
The major averages each posted an up day but a down week in the previous trading session. The Dow rose nearly 200 points, or 0.6%. The S&P climbed 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite finished just 0.01% above the flat line.
— Tanaya Macheel