Goldman Sachs' inflation picks — 10 stocks to buy if prices are peaking

Published Tue, Dec 13 202211:57 AM EST

Investors may start thinking about positioning for a new economic environment after the latest U.S. inflation report. Labor Department data released Tuesday showed the consumer price index, a widely followed measure of inflation, rose just 0.1% in November . That's less than a Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% increase. Wall Street cheered the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring more than 700 points before easing . Investors looked at the report as a sign that inflation may be peaking. There are certain industries that typically outperform when inflation is high and falling, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin wrote in his 2023 outlook in November. To find names that should do well, he screened for stocks in those industries with earnings yields and free-cash-flow yields above the aggregate S & P 500 and their sector. The stocks also outperformed their industry group the day of October's CPI release in early November. Here are 10 of those names: Two pharma biotech companies made the cut, including Viatris , which has the highest earnings yield on the list. To be sure, the company's earnings are expected to contract by 4%, and the stock is down 16% year to date. However, analysts on average expect Viatris to go up nearly almost 15% going forward, according to FactSet. The other pharma biotech company is Organon , whose specialization includes contraceptive and fertility brands. The name has a 20% earnings per share yield. Organon, which was spun off from Merck, recently told CNBC its aspirations are to invest in future opportunities to broaden its portfolio and identify treatments, diagnostics and devices built around patients' needs. Analysts expect the stock to rise by an average of 21%, per FactSet. In the banking space, KeyCorp is among the names that should fare well, according to Goldman Sachs. The company has a 12% yield and estimated earnings per share growth of 8% for 2023. Last month, the bank boosted its quarterly dividend by 5%. The average analyst target implies nearly 13% upside for the stock, per FactSet. Also on the list is Microchip Technology , which has an 8% earnings yield and 4% estimated earnings growth in 2023. The chipmaker recently reiterated its net sales guidance for the December 2022 quarter, expecting it to come between $2.135 billion to $2.177 billion. That would result in 22.7% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the guidance range. In a statement, CEO Ganesh Moorthy said its curated end markets remain resilient and there have been incremental supply chain improvements. The stock has nearly 6% upside to the average analyst price target, as of Monday's close, according to FactSet. Lastly, Molson Coors Beverage should also outperform amid decelerating inflation, according to Goldman. The beer giant h as seen a split among its consumers, with some trading down to cheaper options as prices have risen this year. Molson Coors has an 8% yield and it's estimated earning growth for 2023 is 6%, per Goldman. FactSet data shows analysts see the stock struggling going forward, however, with the average price target implying upside of just 2.3%. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.