JPMorgan trims its price target for Amazon heading into a challenging economic environment in 2023

Published Fri, Dec 16 20226:54 AM EST

JPMorgan is still bullish on shares of Amazon but sees it rising less than previously expected in 2023. The firm slashed its 12-month price target to $130 from $145 in a Dec. 16 note. The new price target implies more than 46% upside to where shares currently trade. JPMorgan's previous price target implied a nearly 64% upside for the technology company. JPMorgan sees several potential headwinds on the horizon for Amazon, including revenue deceleration and margin compression during a challenging macro environment for its cloud division, retail spending hit as the consumer weakens and a potential hit to profitability and free cash flow as capital expenditure spend normalizes. "We're trimming our 4Q estimates to reflect the challenging macro environment, which pressures Retail and AWS on both the top and bottom lines," wrote analyst Doug Anmuth. Lower estimates JPMorgan now sees fourth quarter net sales of $143.4 billion and operating income of $2.0 billion, a 1.4% margin. "Importantly, our 4Q revenue estimate includes AWS growth of +21% Y/Y, further deceleration from the mid-20's% 3Q exit rate, reflecting greater macro pressure on cloud spending," Anmuth said. The firm's total 2023 revenue estimate is down about 2% to $563 billion, including 17% AWS revenue growth on the year. In addition, their 2023 operating income estimate comes down 21% to $19.4 billion. "We recognize the elevated cloud concerns and macro uncertainty over the next few months, but we believe there is still significant secular shift toward e-commerce & cloud ahead, and AMZN should also benefit from easing retail comps into 2023," said Anmuth. Still bullish Of course, the firm maintained its buy-rating on shares of Amazon, and it does see improvement coming next year for the company." "Importantly, AMZN is focused on restoring higher profitability and free cash flow, with better fulfillment network throughput & headcount reductions," Anmuth wrote. And, Amazon has shed more than 46% this year, which presents a buying opportunity for investors looking to snap up shares at a discount. "AMZN shares currently trade at ~8.9x our 2024E EBITDA, which we believe creates a compelling opportunity," Anmuth said.