UBS says disinflation may be the big surprise of 2023 — 10 stocks to play the trend

Published Wed, Jan 18 202311:59 PM EST

Forget inflation. Disinflation could be the big surprise of 2023, according to UBS. "Having peaked higher and persisted for longer than most expected, inflation is finally rolling over fast. From here, we think the pace of disinflation will also be faster than markets expect," UBS' strategist Nicolas Le Roux wrote in a Wednesday note. Investors can prepare their portfolios for growing disinflationary forces on the horizon, according to the note. These include an easing in supply chains, in core goods prices, and even some weakness in the labor market. On Wednesday, investors absorbed the latest reading on the producer price index, which showed a decline of 0.5% in December . Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were forecasting a 0.1% decline for the month. It's the latest signal in the economic data that inflation is easing from its highs, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve will dial back its rate-hiking campaign soon. For such an environment, UBS selected global equities that would be most positively affected by disinflation across the U.S., Europe, the United Kingdom, Asia-Pacific and Latin America. According to the note, these names were chosen for their return sensitivity to changes in inflation, price performance during periods of declining inflation, and revenue sensitivity to changes in inflation indexes. Here are the 10 stocks UBS noted. Netflix is positively correlated to disinflation, according to the note. Jefferies' analyst Andrew Uerkwitz recently upgraded the streaming giant to buy from hold , saying in a recent note that Netflix will offer investors a safe haven in a downturn as it rolls out changes to password sharing. Another firm that will benefit from a temporary slowing in price increases is Dollar General , which UBS says is positively correlated to disinflation. Logitech , the maker of computer peripherals, will also benefit from disinflation. To be sure, the stock was downgraded to hold from buy this month at Deutsche Bank, which said a tough economic backdrop could hurt computer and video spending. Other stocks included in this list are Abbott Laboratories and Clorox . — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.