Bad news has recently been good news for the stock market, but that won't be the case much longer, according to Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief U.S. equity strategist at JPMorgan. "Lately, equities have been shrugging off bad economic news and rising on weaker [economic] data and lower yields," Lakos-Bujas said in a note. "However, we don't see this relationship persisting and expect weaker guidance to put downward pressure on equities," he said, referring to companies' own forecasts. The S & P 500 has risen more than 2% so far in 2023 following its worst year since 2008. But the top-rated strategist said stocks could be headed lower as corporations are expected to lower their guidance as inflation and the slowing economy chisel away at profits. SPY 1Y mountain S & P 500 "We expect FY2023 corporate guidance should be less optimistic relative to current estimates as consumers and corporates turn more cautious and postpone discretionary and growth-related spending," Lakos-Bujas said. JPMorgan's year-end S & P 500 sits at 4,200, about 8% higher than the index's current level around 3,900. The bank's forecast is slightly higher than the average target among Wall Street strategists, according to CNBC's market strategist survey that rounds up 15 top strategists' outlooks. Lakos-Bujas said another headwind for stocks is hawkish remarks from the members of the Federal Reserve, advocating for more monetary tightening. "The steady stream of hawkish headlines from Central Banks (Fed, ECB) remains a significant headwind for equities and will make the recession not only more likely but also earlier than expected," Lakos-Bujas said. For example, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said Thursday that interest rates need to remain high , even though there are signs inflation is starting to ease. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee wraps up its next two-day meeting on Feb. 1. Markets are assigning a near-100% probability that the FOMC will raise its benchmark interest rate another quarter percentage point, taking it to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%, according to CME Group data .
