Bernstein downgrades Tripadvisor, says strategic plan is 'more defensive than offensive'

Published Thu, Feb 16 20236:38 AM ESTUpdated Thu, Feb 16 20236:49 AM EST

Tripadvisor 's strategic plan, coupled with its recent outperformance, put Bernstein on the sidelines. Analyst Richard Clarke downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform. Clarke also lowered his price target by $2 to $26. That price target implies the stock could rise 3.2% over the next year from where it closed Wednesday. The travel platform on Tuesday posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, however, the company said to expect flat adjusted EBITDA in 2023 despite a nearly 20% increase in the previous year. The stock was down 2.9% in premarket trading Thursday. Management laid out what Clarke called a "highly sensible" strategic plan for its core business during fourth-quarter earnings. It includes stepping back from areas like media and entertainment to focus on better-performing units. But Clarke said the plan's guided outcome still puts its core revenue under 2019 levels, while investments would offset any cost saving measures. That led Clarke to revise his EBITDA forecasts down 11% in 2023 and 20% in 2024. "This is going to be a steady multi-year roll-out and the end result seems more defensive than offensive with the aim of 'long term steady profitable growth', which is largely inline with the consensus view and below our previous expectations," he said in a note to clients Thursday. He also said the move to investments has taken benefits away from the company's "buoyant" start to the year. The stock has gained 40.2% since the start of 2023, regaining ground after losing 34% in 2022. That recent outperformance makes the stock less attractive, Clarke said. But the company still has long-term monetization opportunities, with Clarke noting the company has a low market cap-to-user ratio and the potential for increased monetization. Clarke also said Viator and Fork remain top brands within Tripadvisor, with the former still being considered the best of experiences brands and the latter outperforming in the European restaurant market. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.