Stay away: These stocks are expensive and most vulnerable to a consumer slowdown, Wolfe Research says

Published Wed, Feb 22 20231:31 PM ESTUpdated Wed, Feb 22 20232:49 PM EST

Consumer spending is likely to turn negative following "a series of rolling recessions," and there are several vulnerable stocks that investors may want to steer clear of in the months ahead, according to Wolfe Research. The firm expects the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates higher, and for longer, than the consensus expects. So far in the current hiking cycle, housing and tech stocks — including crypto, software and cloud services — have experienced deep downturns, and industrials are on their way to a contraction. "The huge question ahead is whether consumer spending (~70% of GDP) will be the next shoe to drop," Wolfe analyst Chris Senyek said in a note Tuesday. "While consumer spending is unlikely to 'fall off a cliff' (at least over the near term), we do expect U.S. real consumption growth to turn negative and disappoint relative to consensus expectations looking for growth of +1.1% in full-year 2023." Wolfe compiled a list of stocks that are expensive and likely to underperform their peers "in the quarters ahead." Most of them have highly volatile gross margins, leaving them vulnerable to disappointing consumer spending. Here are 10 of the names: Hyatt Hotels is among the most vulnerable, with a 51% gross margin volatility, and one of the most expensive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 43x earnings. It's followed in volatility by Peloton , with gross margin volatility of 31%. Tesla is the most expensive stock on the list, with an earnings multiple of 46x. Its gross margin volatility is 13%. Others on Wall Street are also pumping the brakes on Tesla. Bernstein reiterated its underperform rating on the stock Wednesday, and Tesla dropped off a Goldman Sachs list of hedge-fund darlings. DraftKings and Las Vegas Sands are also near the top in terms of gross margin volatility, at 26% and 25%, respectively. The latter is also expensive, with a P/E ratio of 35x earnings. Wolfe flagged several food stocks too, including hot dog and chicken producer Tyson Foods , potato processor Lamb Weston and poultry producer Pilgrim's Pride . GameStop and Clorox were also named.