Here are the biggest Dow winners and losers since Fed rate hikes began — And where they go from here

Published Tue, Mar 7 202310:05 AM ESTUpdated Tue, Mar 7 202310:41 AM EST

It's been almost a year since the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates, and winners and losers have emerged in the stock market on the back of tighter financial conditions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average , which consists of 30 blue-chip American companies, is split perfectly in half in terms of individual stock performance since rate hikes began. Fifteen names saw their shares rise during the period, while the other 15 suffered losses through Monday's close. The blue-chip gauge itself is off by 5% since March 15, 2022 — the day before the hiking cycle started. One year later, the Fed has boosted the federal funds rate eight times to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%, the highest since October 2007. The central bank is counting on the hikes to bring down inflation that, despite recent signs of slowing, is still running near its highest level since the early 1980s. On the winning side, drugmaker Merck turned out to be the biggest gainer, with a rally north of 40% since last March. Wall Street analysts believe that the developer of the Keytruda cancer treatment could rise another 8% in the next 12 months, based on the Street's average price target. Jefferies initiated coverage on Merck with a buy rating Tuesday and said it has still more room for growth. Meanwhile, banks have fared well, as their lending margins improve with rising rates. Goldman Sachs , JPMorgan , Visa and American Express have all registered gains since the Fed started hiking rates. Analysts think Goldman, JPMorgan and Visa all have double-digit gains in store going forward. Industrial giants Boeing , Caterpillar and Honeywell also emerged as some of the biggest winners during the tightening period. Shares of Boeing and Caterpillar both rallied 17% since last March, while Honeywell gained about 5%. These industrial companies with strong pricing power have held up well as the global economy remained buoyant. On the losing side, technology stocks got hit hard as higher interest rates undermined the sector's valuations. Intel has been the biggest laggard during the tightening period with a 42% loss. Microsoft, Salesforce and Cisco also experienced declines. However, Wall Street analysts expect the tech sector to lead the market comeback as the Fed slows down its rate-hiking campaign. Analysts on average see shares of Microsoft rallying more than 10% in the next 12 months, while expecting Salesforce to climb 18% going forward. Consumer stocks Disney and Home Depot also got hit as inflation ate away at consumers' spending power and weakened the housing market. Disney has fallen 25% since the Fed began tightening, but Wall Street analysts believe the theme park giant could rebound 25% in the next 12 months.