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After a wild, losing week for stocks, investors brace for more market-moving data

Published Sat, Mar 11 20239:44 AM EST

Zev Fima @zevfima

Wall Street doesn't have much time to digest this week's market-moving news — including Friday's jobs report and the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank — before it has more economic data on its plate. Most important of the incoming slew of reports is the consumer price index (CPI), which calculates the average change over time in prices that shoppers pay for goods and services and is slated for Tuesday. Investors want to see a definitive downturn in the rate of price increases on an annual basis to show the Federal Reserve's strategy to beat inflation is working. The CPI increased 0.5% in January, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%. A slower increase for February is ideal. However, we don't want to see a negative number on an annual basis. Disinflation is the goal, not deflation. Deflation means costs are going down every year. Disinflation means prices are still rising, only at a slower pace. We want the latter to get inflation back down to a 2% annual rate. Deflation is worrisome because if consumers expect prices to fall, they are less incentivized to spend — why buy now when you can get it cheaper later? — and consumption accounts for nearly 70% of the U.S. economy. The producer price index (PPI) for February, which calculates the change in selling prices received by producers of goods and services, is out on Wednesday. The PPI doesn't influence the Fed's decisions as much as the CPI. But PPI readings can predict the direction of future consumer price readings. Also on Wednesday is the February retail sales report, which will provide valuable insight into where buyer