Stocks close higher, Dow jumps more than 300 points as banks step in to aid First Republic: Live updates
Stocks rose Thursday as Wall Street grew increasingly optimistic after a group of banks said it would aid First Republic Bank amid the industry's crisis.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index added 371.98 points, or 1.17%, to close at 32,246.55 points. The S&P 500 gained 1.76% to close at 3,960.28. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.48% to 11,717.28, as investors bought technology stocks on hopes that the crisis could push the Federal Reserve to shift its outlook on monetary policy at its meeting next week.
All three indexes traded down earlier in the session, with the Dow down more than 300 points at its lowest. But the market turned positive after CNBC's David Faber reported that a group of banks would deposit $30 billion in First Republic. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) ETF ended the session up 3.5% in its best day since Nov. 10, helped by a 10% gain in First Republic's shares.
Also boosting markets was an announcement from Credit Suisse overnight that it will borrow up to nearly $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank to assure short-term liquidity. U.S. shares of the embattled bank fell to a record low Wednesday following reports that the Saudi National Bank, Credit Suisse's largest investor, said it would not provide additional assistance.
Investors have been closely watching bank stocks after the closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank prompted concerns of contagion in the sector in recent days. Despite concerns in the sector weighing on the minds of investors, all three indexes are on pace to end the week higher, led by the Nasdaq Composite with a 5.2% advance.
'The market is saying, 'Well, maybe the world's not gonna end like maybe people thought not that long ago,'" said Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments. "It's just a sigh of relief."
Investors around the world also followed the announcement of a further rate hike of 50 basis points from the European Central Bank Thursday.
The decision comes as U.S. investors ready for the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. Big technology names Amazon and Alphabet — considered particularly sensitive to interest rates along with other growth stocks — each gained around 4% in Thursday's session.
"Over the last week, the developments in the banking sector certainly is adding another layer of skittishness around investor confidence," said Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments. "But ultimately, investors are tying that back to: What does it mean for Fed policy and interest rates?"
Stocks close higher
The three major indexes closed Thursday's session up.
The Nasdaq Composite added around 2.5%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.8%. The Dow gained 1.2%.
— Alex Harring
Investors should wait a week before adding major exposure, investing chief says
Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, said investors should consider taking a pause on big moves until the end of next week.
He pointed to the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week and the fact that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation tends to take over banks of Fridays as two reasons why investors should wait to add exposure until the end of next week.
Investors should "wait to e see what's the next shoe to drop, and then wait to see what the Fed's really going to do," he said in an interview with CNBC.
Still, Hatfield said he's "extremely" bullish on the longer-term investing outlook. He said he's sticking with his target of 4,500 points for the S&P 500, which would imply the broad index will gain 15.6% from where it closed Wednesday.
— Alex Harring
Market is 'hunting' for weak banks, Rockefeller Capital Management CEO says
Investors are looking for the weakest banks as the crisis takes place, according to Greg Fleming, CEO of Rockefeller Capital Management and former president of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
"What's also similar to '08 is the hunting in the market for who's the most weak next," Fleming said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "And the proxy's been uninsured deposits."
— Alex Harring
The investor who famously shorted SVB on what’s to come in the crisis
William Martin has emerged as the "big short" in the latest banking crisis brought on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The Rocky Hill, New Jersey-based short seller from Raging Capital Ventures singled out Silicon Valley Bank and announced a short position in a Twitter thread on January 18, the day before the bank's quarterly earnings. Martin warned of SVB's large held-to-maturity securities portfolio and accelerating deposit outflows, the exact culprit that brought down the venture capital-focused bank.
Martin believes the crisis should be fairly contained as most of the institutions are not as exposed to the interest rate risk as SVB.
"I think for the industry as a whole, a lot of banks face a period of de-risking, having to raise equity capital, which ultimately just translates into lower earnings and lower profits, but not the type of events we've seen over the last week," Martin said on CNBC's "Power Lunch" Thursday.
— Yun Li
Stocks remain up heading into final trading hour
The major indexes were trading up as investors geared up for the final hour of a volatile trading day.
The Nasdaq Composite led the indexes up with a 2.1% gain. The S&P 500 advanced 1.4%, while the Dow added 0.9%.
All three indexes traded below the flatline earlier in the session before news of help for troubled First Republic Bank gave the market a boost.
The Nasdaq also has had the best week-to-date performance, up 4.9% since Monday. The S&P 500 has gained 2.2% since the start of the week, while the Dow has added 0.9%.
— Alex Harring
Progressive shares get double upgraded at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo analyst Elyse Greenspan double upgraded insurance stock Progressive to overweight from underweight, with her new price target of $158 implying upside of 17% from Wednesday's close.
"PGR has turned the corner on growth, and we think that will drive the stock from here," Greenspan said. "Progressive has seen its personal auto policy growth pick up significantly over the past couple of months ... as they look to take advantage of shopping as competitors are taking price/re-pricing their books of business."
"PGR is a defensive insurer with low investment leverage and conservative investment portfolio, which we believe should help the shares as we deal with market volatility," the analyst added.
— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom
Bank of America, Wells Fargo among biggest contributors for $30 billion First Republic deposit plan
The potential deposit at First Republic being discussed by major U.S. banks has grown to $30 billion, CNBC's David Faber reports.
The biggest contributions would come from Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase at about $5 billion apiece. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will deposit around $2.5 billion each, the sources said. Truist, PNC, U.S. Bancorp, State Street and Bank of New York will deposit about $1 billion each.
— Jesse Pound
Thursday's rally helps indexes trade up this week
Thursday's rally has helped the three major indexes in what has been a volatile week thus far on Wall Street amid the bank crisis.
The Nasdaq Composite is up 4.8% so far this week, boosted as investors took bets on technology and other growth oriented stocks amid hope that the current challenges facing financial institutions could keep the Federal Reserve away from a 50 basis point interest rate hike. Growth stocks are considered by investors to be highly sensitive to interest rates.
The S&P 500 is up 2.3% week to date. Meanwhile, the Dow is up 0.9%.
— Alex Harring
Treasury yields rise on First Republic news, market prices higher odds of Fed rate hike
Treasurys yields moved higher, and the futures market priced an 86% chance of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week, as more details emerged on a possible First Republic Bank rescue.
Yields, which move opposite price, were rising Thursday morning after the European Central Bank raised rates by a half percentage point. They pushed even higher following a late morning report that a group of major banks are discussing a rescue of First Republic.
CNBC's David Faber then reported that a group of financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, are in talks to deposit roughly $20 billion into First Republic. Yields moved even further after his report.
"Short-term yields have gone up a lot," said Michael Schumacher of Wells Fargo. "U.S. 2-year Treasury yields started going up during the ECB discussion, but blasted off on the news of First Republic." The yield was at 4.20% in afternoon trading, up sharply from the 3.90% it was at around 10:45 a.m. ET, he noted.
Bleakley Financial's Peter Boockvar said the futures market moved to price in even higher odds of a Fed rate hike. On Wednesday, odds were about 50% for a quarter point rate hike, but in Thursday afternoon trading the odds jumped up to 86%.
"Rate hike expectations have been rising all morning. Now people can take a deep breath," Boockvar said.
— Patti Domm
Shares of big banks rise midday Thursday
Credit Suisse shares were up 5.35% Thursday afternoon, hitting a session high. The Swiss bank's stock recovered some of its losses from Wednesday's trading session after it announced it would borrow nearly $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank.
Other large banks saw their shares rise. JPMorgan shares gained 2.1%, while Goldman Sachs shares were up 1.5%.
— Hakyung Kim
Stocks making the biggest moves midday
Here are the stocks making the biggest moves midday:
- First Republic Bank — Shares of First Republic erased earlier losses and were last up about 22%. Sources told CNBC's David Faber that a group of major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, were in talks to deposit roughly $20 billion into the beaten-down regional.
- Credit Suisse Group — The Swiss bank's U.S.-listed shares were up 2.5% after it announced it will borrow up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($54 billion) from the Swiss National Bank. The stock is coming off a volatile trading session on Wednesday, during which it lost 13.9% after the Saudi National Bank, its largest investor, said it would not be able to provide additional funding.
- UiPath — The stock surged 17.5% after the automation software company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 15 cents, beating the StreetAccount estimate of 6 cents per share. Revenue also topped expectations. After the results, UiPath was upgraded by Canaccord Genuity to buy from hold.
— Tanaya Macheel
Shares of First Republic, regional banks jump
Shares of First Republic and other regional banks popped following news of a potential plan for other banks to help the financial institution.
Here's how First Republic and the SPDR S&P Regional Banks ETF (KRE) moved over the last hour:
— Alex Harring
Group of institutions in talks to deposit roughly $20 billion in First Republic, sources say
Sources told CNBC's David Faber that a group of financial institutions — including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase — is in talks to deposit about $20 billion in First Republic.
The news comes after First Republic's stock has been pummeled in recent days, sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last Friday and Signature Bank over the weekend.
Shares of First Republic were down more than 30% earlier in the day. In early afternoon trading, however, the stock was only down 3.3% before being halted for volatility.
— Jesse Pound, Fred Imbert
Volatility Thursday pushes Nasdaq to swing 2.64% from low to high, S&P 500 by 2.07%
How volatile have U.S. stocks been three hours into the formal trading day Thursday?
The Nasdaq Composite has swung from a loss of as much as 0.60% to a gain of as much as 2.04% — making for a 2.64% swing.
The S&P 500 bottomed out with a loss Thursday of 0.71% and at the day's high was up as much as 1.36%, making the bottom-to-high rebound 2.07%.
The Dow fluctuated from a loss of as much as 0.95% to up 0.74%, for a total swing from low to high of 1.69%. That amounts to a difference of more than 500 points.
The recovery came as the Wall Street Journal reported that as many as eight U.S. banks are in talks to rescue embattled San Francisco regional bank First Republic.
— Scott Schnipper
UiPath upgraded by Canaccord Genuity
Canaccord Genuity upgraded UiPath to buy from hold on Thursday, a day after the automation software company's earnings topped Wall Street's expectations.
UiPath has made significant strides in recent months realigning its sales force to more effectively target accounts with high propensities to increase spending, analyst Kingsley Crane wrote in a note to clients. Its new tech, like Clipboard AI, is differentiated and its platform can leverage generative artificial intelligence to drive value, he said.
"When we look at PATH's revenue scale, product set, and target market, we fundamentally see more opportunity on the horizon than in the rear view," Kingsley said.
His $19 price target implies nearly 30% upside from Wednesday's close. Shares of UiPath were up more than 15% in midday trading Thursday.
— Michelle Fox
Communication services stocks lead S&P 500 higher
Communication services stocks led the S&P 500 higher in Thursday's session, advancing nearly 2%.
Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet led the sector with gains of nearly 4% each. Media organizations Warner Bros. Discovery and News Corp. were also among the sector's biggest advancers with additions of 2.2% and 1.4%, respectively.
Thursday's gain has moved the sector to a 6.6% gain so far this week. The move comes as investors are betting the banking crisis could push the Federal Reserve to avoid a 50 basis point interest rate hike at its next meeting. Technology and other growth stocks typically perform better during periods with lower interest rates.
Information technology and consumer discretionary followed in communication services' tracks, rising 1.9% and 1.8%, respectively.
Despite the broader index's mid-session turnover, some sectors were still trading down. Consumer staples performed the worst of the 11 sectors, on track for a 0.6% drop. Real estate and energy also posted losses of around 0.3% each.
— Alex Harring
Foot Locker upgraded to outperform by Telsey Advisory Group
Shares of Foot Locker were up 4% after Telsey Advisory Group upgraded shares to outperform from market perform. The footwear company is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter earnings on March 20.
"We believe Monday's investor day could serve as a catalyst for the stock, as new CEO Mary Dillon outlines her transformation plan and financial objectives,," analyst Cristina Fernández wrote in a Thursday note.
"In her six months in the role, she has made changes to the leadership team and simplified the business by exiting international operations, while focusing on the 'core' Foot Locker and Champs banners and its 'growth' concepts," the analyst added.
Fernández raised her price target to $50 from $39, implying almost 18% upside from Wednesday's close price. Shares are up 11.5% in 2023.
— Hakyung Kim
Bank shares rebound off lows
Bank shares rebounded from their lows after The Wall Street Journal reported that some of the biggest U.S. banks were in talks to aid First Republic.
Shares of First Republic were down 23%, well off their lows, before being halted for volatility. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) also rebounded from its lows of the day and was last down 0.7%.
Among the banks in talks to support First Republic are JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, the report said, citing sources. The WSJ also said there are discussions of a possible share sale — or even a potential takeover.
— Fred Imbert
Big Tech stocks lift market higher
Big Tech shares climbed higher Thursday, shrugging off fears of the spreading banking crisis. Amazon shares rallied 3.3%, while Google parent Alphabet jumped 3%. Apple, Meta and Netflix also traded higher.
The strength in technology heavyweights pushed the major stock averages in the green in morning trading. Investors could be flocking to Big Tech to embrace their megacap safety, while betting that the current turmoil will keep the Fed from raising rates, benefitting growth names.
— Yun Li
Goldman says trouble in banks is increasing chances of a recession
Banking industry tumult is placing the U.S. economy in greater danger of a recession, according to Goldman Sachs.
The Wall Street firm upped its probability of a contraction in the 12 months ahead to 35%, a 10 percentage point increase, "reflecting increased near-term uncertainty around the economic effects of small bank stress," Goldman economist Manuel Abecasis said in a client note Wednesday evening.
Regional bank stocks were taking a beating against Thursday. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF slumped 3.7% in early trading.
Bill Ackman issues warning of more bank failures
Pershing Square founder and CEO Bill Ackman believes more bank failures could be on the way despite the regulatory intervention following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. He urged the government to explicitly guarantee all depositors' money for the time being.
"Our gov't's failure to provide a temporary guarantee on all deposits is causing an unnecessary banking crisis which could have a profoundly negative effect on the economy," Ackman said in a Thursday tweet.
"Confidence is destroyed quickly and can take years and sometimes decades to be restored. Three dominoes have fallen and another is on its way. The market will find its next victim(s) if this one is allowed to fall," he added.
— Yun Li
First Republic sells off in heavy volume
Investors are dumping First Republic at a fast pace, with more than 41 million shares exchanging hands in only the first hour of trading. For comparison, the stock's 30-day average volume is 15.18 million.
— Fred Imbert
Bitcoin inches higher amid growing concern over global banking crisis
The price of bitcoin advanced Thursday after a big rally in cryptocurrencies this week as the broader investment world assessed cracks in the banking system in the U.S. and Europe.
Bitcoin added about 1.5% to $24,763.60, according to Coin Metrics, while Ether added more than 1% to trade at $1,667.56. Earlier Thursday, bitcoin briefly touched $25,000, which has been a key level watched by chart analysts.
Investors have welcomed resilient crypto prices amid the banking crisis this week, which, coupled with bitcoin's lowest correlation to stocks in months, is driving a narrative shift for bitcoin as a valuable alternative asset. Bitcoin's price moves, however, are still heavily influenced by inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes.
— Tanaya Macheel
Stocks open lower
The three major indexes traded down as markets opened for Thursday's session.
The Dow and S&P 500 were both down around 0.6% in the first minutes after trading began. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.4%.
— Alex Harring
JPMorgan upgrades telecom stock Motorola Solutions
It's time to build a long-term position in Motorola Solutions, according to JPMorgan.
Analyst Paul Chung upgraded Motorola Solutions to overweight from neutral, saying the telecommunications equipment firm that was spun off from telephone company Motorola Mobility Holdings is looking attractive.
"The stock has retraced back to levels pre-4Q print, and we take advantage of overall market volatility to establish a long-term position in this high-quality stock," Chung wrote.
CNBC pro subscribers can read the full story here.
— Sarah Min
Western Alliance falls in premarket after Fitch places bank on negative rating watch
Western Alliance Bancorp tumbled more than 8% in extended trading after Fitch placed the bank on rating watch negative.
Fitch said the downgrade came as the fallout around Silicon Valley Bank's closure and market conditions have created "liquidity stresses outside the baseline assumptions."
The drop marks a turn from Wednesday's session, when the stock gained 8.3% and bucked the broader slide in regional banks.
— Alex Harring
Housing numbers surge, jobless claims fall, business surveys negative
Building permits and housing starts soared in February, while the latest data on jobless claims saw a big drop, according to economic reports Thursday.
Permits jumped to 1.524 million, a 13.8% increase from January and well above the Dow Jones estimate for 1.34 million, the Commerce Department reported. At the same time, total starts soared to 1.45 million, a 9.8% monthly increase and easily above the 1.31 million estimate.
Jobless claims showed a notable decline.
First-time filings for unemployment benefits totaled 192,000, a decrease of 20,000 and below the expectation of 205,000, according to the Labor Department. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, fell by 29,000.
In other economic reports, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing survey edged higher but was still at -23.2, representing the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion vs. contraction.
The New York Fed's Business Leaders Survey nudged higher but also was still negative at -10.1. In that survey, the business climate index fell to -38.8, "suggesting the business climate remains much worse than normal," the New York Fed said.
Stock market futures lost ground following the data releases.
Stocks making the biggest premarket moves
Here are some of the names making the biggest moves in the premarket:
- Snap, Meta — Snap gained 6% and Meta rose 1.6% after the Biden administration said competitor TikTok could be banned in the U.S. unless it is sold by its Chinese owner, ByteDance, CNBC confirmed, citing a person familiar with the matter.
- Dollar General — The discount retailer dropped nearly 2% after its fourth-quarter same-store sales missed Wall Street's estimates. Same-store sales rose 5.7% in the quarter, versus the 6% expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
- UiPath — The automation software company rallied more tan 15% after its fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 15 cents beat the 6 cents expected, per StreetAccount. Revenue came in at $308.5 million, well above the $278.6 million expect.
To see more stocks making moves in the premarket, read the full story here.
— Michelle Fox
Market moves back to quarter-point Fed rate hike next week
The ever-shifting market on what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates next week now is indicating that a quarter percentage point move higher is likely.
Traders assigned a 74% probability of a 0.25 percentage point, or 25 basis point, increase when the Federal Open Market Committee releases its decision Wednesday, according to CME Group data shortly before 7:30 a.m. ET.
The fed funds futures market has been highly volatile over recent days, with expectations vacillating between the quarter-point hike and no increase.
Though the market is now looking for an increase in March, it doesn't expect much after that.
Futures contracts implied a peak, or terminal, rate of 4.88% in May, then that number sliding through the year to 3.97% by December, indicating a likelihood of rate cuts ahead.
What analysts are saying about Credit Suisse
Wall Street analysts were split on whether they should buy into Credit Suisse following the bank announcing it would borrow up to nearly $54 billion to shore up liquidity.
JPMorgan's Roberto Henriques reiterated an overweight rating on the bank, noting he expects that the "central bank bazooka" will assuage investors concerned over liquidity issues and give Credit Suisse enough time to roll out a restructuring plan.
Analysts at Bank of America and RBC Capital Markets, however, were not as optimistic.
Check out our full story on CNBC Pro.
— Sarah Min
Credit Suisse situation not a Lehman-like event, JPMorgan traders say
Traders at JPMorgan broke down why they think Credit Suisse's situation is not like Lehman Brothers during the financial crisis.
"There are some glaring differences," they wrote. "(i) US and EU banks are well capitalized, so this is primarily an issue of confidence; (ii) the Fed/Treasury have an existing playbook and can put together a sizable response overnight. It should not surprise to see the $25bn BTFP increased and then levered up. (iii) derivatives exposure is materially lower today than in the lead up to GFC."
Global markets were rocked Wednesday after Credit Suisse's largest investor said it would not provide further assistance. Overnight, the bank said it would borrow up to roughly $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank to shore up short-term liquidity.
— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom
European markets open higher
European markets opened higher Thursday as regional investors breathed a sigh of relief after the Swiss National Bank said it would provide a liquidity backstop to beleaguered bank Credit Suisse.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index opened 1% higher. Most sectors and major bourses opened on a positive note, with gains led by a rally in bank stocks, which were up 2.8%. Oil and gas and retail stocks were up 1.6%.
— Hannah Ward-Glenton
Saudi National Bank says panic over Credit Suisse is unwarranted
The chairman of Credit Suisse's largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, told CNBC's Hadley Gamble that the recent market turmoil in the banking sector is "isolated" and stems from "a little bit of panic."
"If you look at how the entire banking sector has dropped, unfortunately, a lot of people were just looking for excuses ... it's panic, a little bit of panic," Ammar Al Khudairy said on CNBC's "Capital Connection."
He added that Credit Suisse has not asked Saudi National Bank for financial assistance.
"There has been no discussions with Credit Suisse about providing assistance," he said. "I don't know where the word 'assistance' came from, there has been no discussions whatsoever since October," he said.
His comments come after Credit Suisse announced it will be borrowing up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($53.68 billion) from the Swiss National Bank to shore up liquidity and investor confidence after its stock plunged Wednesday.
– Jihye Lee
Swiss franc strengthens in volatile trade after Credit Suisse's announcement
The Swiss franc saw continued volatility following developments around Credit Suisse – and last strengthened 0.17% against the U.S. dollar to pare earlier weakening after the lender announced to borrow nearly $54 billion from Swiss National Bank.
The Japanese yen also saw further strengthening to trade at 132.86 against the greenback. The Korean won strengthened 0.13% to 1,311.24 against the U.S. dollar.
– Jihye Lee
Credit Suisse says it will borrow up to about $54 billion from Swiss central bank
Credit Suisse announced it will be borrowing up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($53.69 billion) from the Swiss National Bank under a covered loan facility and a short-term liquidity facility.
The steps will "support Credit Suisse's core businesses and clients as Credit Suisse takes the necessary steps to create a simpler and more focused bank built around client needs," the company said in an announcement.
In addition, the bank is making a cash tender offer in relation to ten U.S. dollar denominated senior debt securities for an aggregate consideration of up to $2.5 billion – as well as a separate offer to four Euro denominated senior debt securities for up to an aggregate 500 million euros, the company said.
Read more here.
– Jihye Lee
First Republic Bank considering options, including sale: Bloomberg
First Republic Bank is considering options to shore up liquidity including a sale of the lender, Bloomberg reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
The bank is expected to draw interest from its rivals and no decision has been made, the report said.
Shares of the bank rose 3.92% in after hour trading in U.S. Wednesday evening – after seeing a rise of more than 20% earlier in the week alongside regional banks.
– Jihye Lee
‘Big Short’ investor Steve Eisman says if the Fed is scared to raise rates, investors should also be wary
Steve Eisman of "The Big Short" fame said if the spreading banking crisis stops the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates next week, investors should be fazed by that.
"Fifty basis points is off the table. So either they're going to do 25 basis points or they're going to do nothing," Eisman said on CNBC's "Fast Money" Wednesday evening.
"If the Fed doesn't raise rates, … maybe it'll be positive for a couple hours or a couple of weeks," he said. "But the Fed won't be raising rates because it's scared. Well, if the Fed is scared, you should be scared."
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about his analysis here.
— Hakyung Kim
JPMorgan says headwinds to credit could result in GDP downturn
JPMorgan analyst Michael Feroli believes GDP numbers could take a hit in upcoming quarters as investors become anxious about the financial sector, particularly mid-size banks.
"A very rough estimate is that slower loan growth by mid-size banks could subtract a half to a full percentage-point off the level of GDP over the next year or two," Feroli wrote in a Wednesday note.
"We believe this is broadly consistent with our view that tighter monetary policy will push the US into recession later this year. It's not unusual when a Fed rate hiking campaign causes stress in the financial system—it's unusual when it doesn't," Feroli added.
The firm anticipates the Federal Reserve will announce a rate hike of 25 basis points, rather than a 50 basis point-increase or pausing rate hikes entirely.
"We look for a quarter-point hike. A pause now would send the wrong signal about the seriousness of the Fed's inflation resolve," said Feroli.
"Relatedly, it would also send the wrong signal about 'financial dominance,' which is the idea that the central bank is hesitant to tighten, or quick to ease, because of concerns about financial stability."
— Hakyung Kim
Stocks making the biggest moves after hours
Check out the companies making headlines after the bell.
Credit Suisse — Credit Suisse shares rallied almost 7% after a statement from the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority and the Swiss National Bank said that the bank is currently well capitalized. The SNB added that it would provide additional liquidity if necessary. Shares tumbled 13.9% during Wednesday's trading session after Credit Suisse's largest investor, Saudi National Bank, said that it could not provide the Swiss bank with any further financial assistance.
Adobe — The software company's shares were up 4.6% after its fiscal first-quarter results topped Wall Street estimates. The company reported adjusted earnings of $3.80 per share and revenue of $4.66 billion. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected earnings of $3.68 per share and revenue of $4.62 billion.
Five Below — Shares of the value retailer were down more than 3% in extended trading, slipping on the company's muted outlook for the first quarter. Five Below reported revenue that topped Wall Street's expectations, according to Refinitiv, and earnings were in-line with estimates.
CNBC Pro subscribers can find the full list here.
— Hakyung Kim
U.S. stock futures mixed on Wednesday night
U.S. stock futures were mixed on Wednesday night after investor fears of a widespread banking crisis led to a volatile trading session.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 24 points, or 0.07%. S&P 500 futures were updown just 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.10%.
— Hakyung Kim