Trump tariffs inject more uncertainty into global economy

U.S. consumers will experience an overall average effective tariff rate of 18.3%, the highest since 1934, according to new estimates from The Budget Lab at Yale University.

The tariffs are expected to cost U.S. households an average $2,400 in 2025, with the levies disproportionally impacting clothes, the nonpartisan research center said.

In the short-run, consumers could see 40% higher shoe prices and 38% higher clothes prices

In the longer-term, shoe prices are likely to be 19% higher, while clothing prices are likely to be 17% higher, according to The Budget Lab.

— Erin Doherty

They can't speak, waddle to move and huddle together to stay warm, yet a region with more penguins than people just became one of the biggest winners from Trump's updated tariffs.

The Falklands Islands, a remote archipelago in the South Atlantic, were hit particularly hard by Trump's threatened April 2 tariffs, a move that stunned the region's researchers.

Trump in April announced a 41% levy on the remote Falkland Islands. At the time, experts said the decision underscored that nowhere in the world was safe from Trump's levies.

The move also sparked concerns in the British overseas territory that the tariffs would bring major economic consequences for islands with a total population of roughly 3,500 people.

Trump also imposed a tariff rate on the Heard and McDonald Islands in the Southern Ocean, off Antarctica. Unlike the Falklands, they are completely uninhabited and home only to hundreds of thousands of penguins.

The Falkland Islands exported $27.4 million of goods to the U.S. in 2023, the vast majority of which was non-fillet frozen fish, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

However, Trump reversed course on Thursday, cutting the tariffs to 10%, marking one of the largest reductions of any country from April's threatened rates to August's final rates.

— Erin Doherty

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is calling Trump's new tariffs a "knockout win."

"The 'Trump Round' of trade negotiations accomplished what the WTO and multilateral negotiations have failed to achieve: expansive new market access for U.S. exporters, increased tariffs to defend critical industries, and trillions of new manufacturing investments that will create great American jobs," Greer writes in a post on X.

The post is accompanied by an image that appears to show Trump wearing a heavyweight boxing championship belt standing in a boxing ring.

– Laya Neelakandan

Trump's new tariffs are hitting several countries' imports harder than the rates that had initially been announced for those nations on April 2.

Brazil's rate jumped from 10% to 50%, as Trump ramps up criticism of the country's treatment of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

Canada is also facing a large increase, with its previously announced rate of 25% being upped to 35%.

Trump cited Canada's "continued inaction" in curbing the flow of fentanyl and drugs for imposing the higher rate, according to an executive order.

Switzerland was hit with a jump from 31% to 39%, among the highest rates of the new tariffs.

Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter said that she spoke to Trump on Thursday but did not reach an agreement with him to forestall that spike.

– Laya Neelakandan

Lesotho, Madagascar and the Falkland Islands were among the biggest winners from last night's tariff announcement, seeing some of the steepest reductions from the rates announced on Liberation Day.

On April 2, Trump imposed a 50% tariff rate on Lesotho. Last night, he announced a new rate of 15%.

Madagascar initially faced a 47% tariff rate, which was also reduced to 15%.

Finally, the Falkland Islands, a remote South Atlantic archipelago, had their rate drop from 41% to 10%.

— Erin Doherty

Council of Economic Advisors Chairman Stephen Miran said he expects even more government revenue from tariffs than previously projected, predicted more major U.S. trading partners will cut deals with the Trump administration, and waved off inflation concerns over tariffs.

"You mentioned revenues. That's also, I think, going to be absolutely fabulous," Miran said in an interview on CNBC's "Money Movers."

"A month ago, we expected $3 trillion in revenues [from tariff collections] over a decade," he said. "My team is still crunching the numbers as we have more tariff rates ... I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being much closer to $4 trillion than $3 trillion."

Miran said recent trade deals signed by the Trump administration, with the European Union, Japan and other trading partners, has "laid out a road map for how other countries can get trade deals if they want," including Canada, China and Mexico.

Those three countries are among the biggest trading partners with the U.S., and Miran suggested "it's only a matter of time until Canada and some others" reach similar deals.

"It's in their best interest to come to deal that makes America still remain open for business," Miran said. "Because outcomes with the deal will be much better than outcomes without a deal."

Asked if there is evidence that imposing tariffs on imports from other countries had lead to an increase in U.S. companies moving foreign manufacturing operations back home, Miran said, "I think it's going to take soem time for that evidence to accumulate."

He noted that "hyperglobalization" took years to occur, and likewise, "starting to rebuild the American domestic manufacturing base is also not going to happen overnight."

"I think we'll start to see signs of that coming in the near future," Miran said.

He said he did not think the new tariffs imposed by Trump will be "inflationary."

When "Money Movers" host Sara Eisen pointed to evidence of inflation in some goods sectors, Miran said he disagreed that it was due to tariffs, calling it "an international phenomenon" that is also seen in other countries.

- Dan Mangan  

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer warns that the disappointing jobs numbers today are a product of the uncertainty and potential economic slowdown created by Trump's tariffs.

"It is disturbing to say, but the chickens are coming home to roost on Donald Trump's destructive trade war, and the American people are paying the price," the New York Democrat just said on the Senate Floor.

"If this is what Liberation Day was supposed to look like, then God help us."

— Christina Wilkie

Swiss businesses broadly believed they were close to a framework trade deal with the U.S. — instead they have been rocked by news of a 39% tariff, one of the highest in the world, to apply from Aug. 7.

"This unpredictability imposes a rising risk premium on financial assets," Beat Wittmann, chairman and partner at Porta Advisors, said in emailed comments. "This will lead to a weakening of the Swiss economy, the Swiss Franc and the Swiss equity market, particularly the all-important export sector."

Consultancy Capital Economics estimates that a 39% tariff could knock 0.6% off Swiss GDP, or more if it extends to pharmaceuticals.

However, analysts also noted Friday that there was still time for Switzerland to negotiate new rates before the end of next week. Read more here.

— Jenni Reid

The White House is facing fresh pressure to blunt the potential negative impacts of tariffs on the U.S. economy, after the latest job report showed weak numbers in July and dramatic downward revisions earlier in the year.

Job growth totaled 73,000 last month, above the June total of 14,000, but below what economists were expecting.

In an equally worrying sign, job growth from June and May was slashed by a combined 258,000 jobs, from previously announced levels.

The weak jobs reports suggest that companies may have already been preemptively slowing their hiring amid the uncertainty created by months of tariff threats and pauses from the White House.

— Erin Doherty

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the bilateral trade deals Trump has made — most of which are predicated on pledges to purchase U.S. goods — will stick even if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the president does not have the legal authority to impose his country-specific tariffs.

"The reality is, the countries understand the type of leverage that President Trump has created," Greer just said on Bloomberg TV. "That's why they're doing these deals, and they're going to stick regardless of what happens in litigation."

Whether Greer is correct about that remains to be seen. It's not difficult to imagine that a country which had agreed to buy goods in order to avoid higher U.S. tariff rates might go back on that pledge if the high court ruled those tariffs were unconstitutional.

Greer's statement comes a day after the government argued before an 11 judge panel at the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals that Trump's authority to make wholesale changes to tariff rates stems from an obscure trade law known as IEEPA.

Whichever way that court rules, the case is widely expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court.

"We feel confident," about winning in court, says Greer. "You know, if it goes the other way, then we'll manage that."

— Christina Wilkie

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the trade deals are all "premised" on other countries "actually opening their market, [and] making the investment and purchase commitments they've agreed to."

If they don't honor their agreements with the U.S., then "the president has his tariff authority," Greer said.

He said that his office monitors compliance with trade deals, and if countries don't comply they "can have the tariffs go back into place."

"This is basic trade enforcement," Greer said on CNBC.

— Erin Doherty

August trading is starting "with a bit of panic," Macquarie strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry said in a note on Friday.

"It is, after all, August 1, which was always linked to a fearful apprehension over the prospect that some (on many) countries would not have reached a "deal" with the US to settle on low, but permanent, tariff situations," they said.

"Negotiations were reported to be still in progress with the hold-outs, and thus traders haven't lost all hope, however. But the effect of seeing Trump not 'chicken out' has hurt stock markets overnight and this morning," Wizman and Berry noted.

Global markets have broadly been lower, with Asia-Pacific markets recording a negative day, the pan-European Stoxx 600 was down around 1.4% and U.S. stock futures were under pressure.

— Sophie Kiderlin

Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said the country's government was in the final stages of creating a plan to help companies impacted by tariffs.

He said that while specific figures were still being fine-tuned, he expected spending to be in line with local fiscal rules, Reuters reported.

Brazil is facing 50% tariffs on its goods. Trump has positioned the tariffs politically, linking them to the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

— Sophie Kiderlin

The currencies of some countries affected by higher tariffs pulled back Friday. The Swiss franc was last down by around 0.5% against the U.S. dollar. Switzerland is facing 39% tariffs from later this month — however the country's government has said it is still seeking a "negotiated solution."

Elsewhere, the South African rand was last down around 0.6% against the U.S. dollar as the country is set to see 30% tariffs on its goods.

The Canadian dollar was last down around 0.1% against the U.S. dollar. Canada has been hit with 35% tariffs, a development which Prime Minister Mark Carney described as "disappointing."

— Sophie Kiderlin

The news of Switzerland facing 39% tariffs is "disappointing," Rahul Sahgal, CEO of the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Friday.

Switzerland has invested a lot of time and gone through many rounds of negotiations with various U.S. bodies and officials, he said, suggesting that an agreement had not been far off.

"That we then get slapped with 39% is at this point very disappointing," he said, noting that he however does not think the end point has been reached.

The CEO also said that it was hard to tell what the reason behind the higher tariff rate was, but noted that the Swiss-U.S. goods trade balance had apparently been flagged by Trump.

The U.S. goods trade deficit with Switzerland amounted $38.5 billion last year, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative.

But, Switzerland is a much smaller country than the U.S., Sahgal pointed out, saying that therefore even "if every Swiss was to drink a bottle of bourbon and eat a steak every single day and buy a Harley Davidson, we will not be able to balance the trade in goods."

— Sophie Kiderlin

European stocks pulled back Friday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 last trading around 1.3% lower at levels last seen in early July.

The German DAX index tumbled 1.7%, while France's CAC 40 fell by 2.1%. The British FTSE 100 also pulled back and was last 0.6% lower.

European pharmaceutical stocks broadly pulled back on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump sent letters to various companies, including U.S. firms, demanding cheaper drug prices.

— Sophie Kiderlin

South Korean official Yeo Han-Koo on Friday said there was no written agreement on the trade deal between the country and and the U.S., Reuters reported.

Because of time constraints, the negotiations had been oral, he told reporters.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday had announced a trade deal between the two countries. It includes 15% tariffs on South Korean goods, lower than the 25% Trump had threatened the country with in a letter last month.

— Sophie Kiderlin

The latest U.S. tariff policy is "still not the end of the story," Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said Friday.

"President Trump's latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year," he noted. That's higher than expected and carries downside risks for global economic growth projections, as well as some upside risk for U.S. inflation forecasts, Brown said.

"That said, this is unlikely to be the final word, as it still seems likely that some other countries will reach their own deals with the US, while there is a chance that the US courts will eventually strike down these tariffs," he said.

— Sophie Kiderlin

Switzerland's biggest business lobby hit out at the U.S. tariffs, saying it is "neither justified nor understandable why Switzerland should be subject to one of the world's highest tariff rates."

Economiesuisse said the tariffs represent a very serious burden for Swiss export companies warning that the new duties would make make Swiss exports "more expensive, weaken companies' competitiveness, and strain the investment climate."

The group said Switzerland doesn't impose any levies on U.S. imports and the country is the sixth-largest foreign investor in the U.S., with Swiss companies responsible for approximately 400,000 jobs.

A "rapid and advantageous" solution to the crisis is necessary, the lobby group said.

— Michael Considine

The latest changes to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies are, in some ways, "not the worst-case scenario, as Trump had previously indicated that the universal 10% baseline rate could double," Berenberg U.S. economist, Atakan Bakiskan, said in a Friday note.

Bakiskan nevertheless added that the new levies mark a "huge blow to global commerce" and forecast that the U.S. will suffer the hit of the new levies by way of higher domestic inflation and slower growth.

"The tariffs distort competition between companies that produce in the US to serve the US market relative to those that produce abroad. But many European Japanese and South Korean-based producers compete more against each other than against US-based producers in the US market," the economist said.

"As they all face a 15% levy, the competition between them is distorted by less than would have been the case if Trump had imposed widely different country-specific US tariffs against these key advanced economies," Bakiskan added.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Malaysia's semiconductor exports — which are a major pillar of its economy — will be exempt from U.S. tariffs, its trade minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz said Friday.

According to the country's trade ministry, Malaysia is the sixth largest semiconductor exporter globally.

A number of semiconductor companies are operating in Malaysia, including Intel, Micron, AMD and Broadcom.

Besides semiconductors, the country's pharmaceutical products will also be exempted from the duties, Zafrul added. Malaysia saw its tariff rate lowered to 19% from the 24% rate set earlier.

— Victor Loh

Asia-Pacific markets ended the day lower on Friday.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declined 1.07% to close at 24,507.81, while mainland China's CSI 300 index decreased by 0.51% to 4,045.93.

Japan's Nikkei 225 benchmark ended the day 0.66% lower at 40,799.60, while the broader Topix index ticked up 0.19% to 2,948.65.

Meanwhile, South Korea's Kospi index retreated 3.88% to close at 3,119.41, while the small-cap Kosdaq plunged 4.03% to 772.79.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 benchmark fell 0.92% to end the day at 8,662.

Over in India, the 50-stock benchmark Nifty 50 was down 0.48%, while the BSE Sensex index lost 0.34% as of 2:02 p.m. Indian Standard Time (4:32 a.m. ET).

— Amala Balakrishner

Much uncertainty remains over the extent to which the pharmaceutical sector will be affected by tariffs.

A spokesperson for the Swiss Federal Department of Economic Affairs told Reuters on Friday that the government understands that the 39% tariffs the country is facing are not set to include the pharmaceutical sector.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.

Other countries, including South Africa, on Friday also flagged expected exceptions for the pharmaceutical sector.

— Sophie Kiderlin

The injection of wide-spanning tariffs is expected to impact global trade, with market uncertainty triggering a "large impact on business and household sentiment around the world and on global financial and capital markets," the Bank of Japan said in its quarterly report out Aug. 1.

The institution noted that Japan's automakers have likely absorbed the cost hit from the U.S. levies, as reflected in a 20% drop in export prices for their vehicles since April.

"These developments suggest that while Japanese automakers have avoided a decrease in sales volume due to an increase in local prices, their profits are declining, taking the form of a deterioration in export profitability," the bank said.

Japan secured a lower preferential tariff rate for its automobile sector as part of its trade agreement struck with the U.S. for a 15% levy.

— Ruxandra Iordache

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed "concern" over the White House's updated tariffs that will impose a 30% duty on South African goods bound for the U.S.

Ramaphosa said his country will continue negotiations with Washington toward a trade deal, noting the government is finalizing a package to support companies, producers and workers affected by the levies.

"All applicable exceptions published in the previous US Executive Order are set to remain in force and these exceptions covered products such as copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber articles, certain critical minerals, stainless steel scrap and energy and energy products," he said.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Washington's new tariffs regime — which also confirmed rates agreed in recent days with trading partners such as Japan and the EU — "reflect the first results of the EU-US deal, esp. the 15% all-inclusive tariff cap," according to the 27-nation bloc's trade chief.

"This reinforces stability for businesses as well as trust in the transatlantic economy. EU exporters now benefit from a more competitive position. The work continues," Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Sefcovic said in a social media update.

The EU and White House carried out tumultuous negotiations in recent weeks, which ultimately resulted in a trade agreement on July 27.

— Ruxandra Iordache

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday that modified "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens of countries, with experts warning more tariff hikes could be on the table.

"Of particular concern is the continued uncertainties [trading partners] will face with new sectoral tariffs coming and possibilities of additional tariffs if the Administration believes countries are not operating in good faith in their implementation efforts," said Wendy Cutler, a former deputy U.S. trade representative.

"No doubt about it — the executive order and related agreements concluded over the past few months tears up the trade rule book that has governed international trade since WW2. Whether our partners can preserve it without the United states is an open question," added Cutler, who is also a senior vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Stephen Olson, senior visiting fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and a former U.S. trade negotiator, was of the same view: "Don't assume this is the end of the story ... more deals and further tariff increases are almost certain to follow."

"Countries wishing to trade with the U.S. will now face dramatically higher tariffs that could be further increased at the whim of a president who has shown a disdain for trade rules and agreements, even those he himself has signed," Olson added.

Read more about the latest tariff announcement here.

— Anniek Bao

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the U.S. increasing tariffs to 35% on the country had "disappointed" its government. The duties have already come into effect and are the latest escalation in the months-long U.S.-Canada trade conflict.

"While we will continue to negotiate with the United States on our trading relationship, the Canadian government is laser focused on what we can control: building Canada strong," he said in a statement.

While goods that are covered by the Canada-United States-Mexico agreement will not be affected by tariffs, Carney said.

Other sectors including lumber, steel, aluminium and autos would be "heavily impacted," he added.

The prime minister also pushed back against the U.S. justifying higher tariffs with cross-border drug flows — an argument Trump has repeatedly made.

— Sophie Kiderlin

Mexico welcomed news it was granted a 90-day reprieve on a U.S. boost to tariffs to 30% on many goods, to allow for further negotiations.

"We avoided the increase of tariffs announced for tomorrow and we prevailed with 90 days to build a large-scale agreement based on dialogue," Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo said in a social media update, according to a CNBC translation, citing a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Switzerland is assessing the new situation after it was hit with a new 39% tariff rate under U.S. President Donald Trump's updated trade regime, the Federal Council said on the X social media platform.

"The Federal Council notes with great regret that, despite the progress made in bilateral talks and Switzerland's very constructive stance from the outset, the US intends to impose unilateral additional tariffs on imports from Switzerland," it noted.

The council added that it remains in contact with Washington and will continue pursuing a "negotiated solution."

— Ruxandra Iordache

In Asia, leaders from Taiwan, Cambodia and Japan have reacted to the new tariff rates from U.S. President Donald Trump, with some expressing optimism over lower levy rates.

Some governments, like those of Japan and Thailand, had also promised support to help businesses cope with the impact of the tariffs.

Australia, which received the lowest tariff of 10%, saw its trade minister reportedly hail this as a "vindication" for the government, adding that the country had conducted diplomacy with the U.S. in a "cool and calm" way.

Read more reactions to the Trump tariffs here.

— Lim Hui Jie, Sophie Kiderlin

US President Donald Trump has updated tariff rates for a spate of countries, ramping up trade barriers with some of Washington's closest trading allies.

Among those hit, Canada has been slapped with a 35%, while Switzerland's rate is now 39%, while Taiwan faces a 20% duty. Trump had previously announced India would be hit with a 25% rate.

All of the newly unveiled tariff rates come into effect from Aug. 7. 

Mexico has been granted a 90-day extension as negotiators continue trade talks.

— Michael Considine