Gold should be a winner if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates tomorrow as the market expects, according to Bank of America. The Fed is poised to lower the cost of money even though inflation stayed stubbornly high at an annual rate of 2.9% in August. In the past quarter century, gold has never declined in price when the central bank eases monetary policy at the same time as inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, according to Bank of America's commodity analysts. "In fact, even if we disregard the Global Financial Crisis , gold has returned around 13% annually during 'inflationary easing,'" analysts led by Michael Widmer told clients in a report on Monday. Bank of America forecasts gold will hit $4,000 an ounce in 2026. Gold futures have gained more than 40% in 2025 alone, to reach $3,729 per ounce as of mid-morning Tuesday. Gold is also seeing strong demand from central banks, which now hold more of the precious metal than U.S. Treasuries, the analysts said. Global monetary authorities are increasingly worried about Fed independence under President Donald Trump, which has encouraged the acquisition of gold reserves, they said. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has slumped more than 10% in 2025 against a basket of leading trading partners' currencies . ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )
