Optimism is my strong suit—and my weakness. My mantra: Capitalism is optimism monetized. We invest new capital with an abiding faith that richer returns will come of it.

But these days a new pessimism gnaws at me. I struggle to quell this queasy feeling that, a few years out, we could face a long and relentless decline in our economy and in the markets. Not because Wall Street blows it again on the oxymoron of risk management—but because of government.