At $44, is Twitter about to nosedive?
(Click for video linked to a searchable transcript of this Mad Money segment)
If other social media IPO's are any indication, Twitter should be about to plunge, no?
Groupon, Zynga and certainly Facebook all traded dramatically lower in the weeks and months after their IPOs.
After a one day gain of 72%, if anything, you should be against Twitter, right?
Cramer isn't so sure. Of course, the Mad Money host advocates caution. Gains of more than 70% in one day are eye-popping.
However, Cramer also doesn't think the advance is as dangerous as it may appear. Here's why:
1. Conventional metrics may not apply. Much like Amazon and Netflix, Wall Street may be willing to award a premium to this stock that's far greater than most rivals.
2. The IPO went smoothly. "Unlike Facebook, buyers and sellers met in an orderly way and everyone who wanted stock got it," Cramer said. That means supply and demand determined price.
3. Twitter has strong fundamentals. "Looking at the valuations, the track record of the management team and the trajectory of earnings, there are good reasons to buy," Cramer said.
4. Twitter is disruptive. "Twitter has changed behavior, as surely as television and radio before that," Cramer said. Along with just a handful of other companies, it sits at the very center of the social media revolution.
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Therefore, "I can't jump up and down and tell you Twitter is in big trouble," Cramer said. "It may well grow into the valuation that the market has assigned it, today. However, make no mistake at $44 Twitter is outrageously expensive."
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