This stock not for the faint of heart: Cramer
(Click for video linked to a searchable transcript of this Mad Money segment)
There may be opportunity in this tech name, but you have to be nimble.
"If you have an appetite for risk, I think there's probably some more money to be made in Micron, but ultimately I can see the proverbial punchbowl getting taken away.
The short-term bull case
Cramer said bulls may prevail over the short-term because Micron's largest business has changed significantly over the past 10 years.
"Micron is a maker of ," Cramer explained. "It accounts for 70% of the company's sales."
A decade ago there were a dozen DRAM suppliers which drove significant fluctuations in supply. And when supply increased too much, profits slipped as did Micron shares.
However, Cramer says the dynamic has changed; now there are only three major players in the space; Samsung, Hynix and
"That makes Micron a part of an oligopoly," Cramer said, and the "Mad Money" host is a big fan of companies with that kind of industry leverage.
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Because there are now far fewer companies making DRAMs, Cramer thinks the potential for over-supply is greatly reduced. In turn, if supply remains relatively constant, profit margins should remain strong. And if that happens, "Micron should keep making money and investors will continue to buy the stock."
Therefore, Cramer sees Micron as a short-term buy.
The long-term bear case
Although Cramer believes supply will remain constrained in the near-term, historically, he says somebody has always increased capacity. Ultimately, he thinks it happens again.
"And new capacity is the kiss of death for Micron," Cramer reminded.
Also, CNBC contributor Herb Greenberg has identified insider selling at Micron. "While insiders sell for many reasons, it's still a potential yellow flag," Cramer added.
All told, Cramer is cautious over the long-term. "I believe DRAM makers will add too much capacity, and DRAM prices will get eviscerated."
The bottom line
"The key word in the bear case is eventually. In the near term, the consolidation in the industry looks like a game changer. I think it means that this rally can perhaps last for much longer than it would have in the old days of ruinous DRAM competition. Therefore, I'm willing to give Micron my blessing for speculation only, but this stock is not for the faint of heart, and if you're going to own it, you have to be aware that at any moment, the axe could come down," Cramer said.
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