Jobs report: Don't get too attached to market reaction
The stock market is looking to Friday's nonfarm payroll report as the next big driver for equities, yet most market analysts believe that whatever the initial reaction might be, it's likely to change.
"Jobs day is always funky, whatever happens tends to get reversed the following Monday," said Paul Nolte, a senior vice president and portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management.
"At the end of the day, it's the decisions coming out of the Fed, or Wall Street south" driving equities, said Dan Cook, director of business development for the North American Derivatives Exchange (Nadex).
On Thursday, Wall Street looked to Friday's employment report as both the Dow and the advanced further into uncharted territory.
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Thursday data had the count of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits climbing last week, but the underlying trend illustrated a firming labor market, with the four-week moving average down to a near seven-year low.
Yet that report will have little to do with the government's employment report for May, as it falls outside the survey period.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expected to hear that nonfarm payrolls expanded by 218,000 last month, up from April's 288,000 addition. The jobless rate was projected as climbing one-tenth of a percentage point to 6.4 percent from a more than five-year low in April.
"If we surprise to the upside, maybe we taper harder. Let's say we get 300,000, which would be a huge surprise. We might see a brief rally, until everyone realizes that is something to spur the Fed to cut quicker."
"But, if we get 150,000, we'd likely have an initial reaction to the downside until people say wait a minute, the Fed is going to stick around longer," Cook added.
—By CNBC's Kate Gibson