Economy's strong, and jobs will prove it: LaVorgna
Joseph LaVorgna is expecting some good news.
The chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, LaVorgna is expecting June nonfarm payrolls to come in at 225,000 when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the key economic data point on Thursday morning. And as for GDP, he expects the second quarter to follow up the 2.9 percent Q1 decline with growth of 4.2 percent.
When it comes to payrolls growth, his 225,000 is not far above the consensus of 210,000 gathered by Reuters, or the 217,000 jobs created in May. But even a consensus reading would mean the fifth straight month of plus-200,000 job gains.
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"If we registered 225,000 or even a consensus-type number on Thursday, that's going to keep that three-month moving average right around 235,000," LaVorgna pointed out on Tuesday's "Futures Now."
And he expects that the jobs growth will continue to be registered "in a lot of different areas—in manufacturing, construction, retail trade, professional business services, leisure, hospitality—it's broad based. That's what we've been seeing the last few months, with most industries adding to employment."
All in all, "this is an economy that's doing reasonably well, GDP considerations aside," he said.
"That number was so bizarre," he said. "It was bizarre for two reasons: One, we've never, at least in the last 10 years, ever had that kind of revision from the second to third readings. Secondly, every time you've had a decline of that magnitude the economy's been in recession or effectively been in recession. So the question is, 'Is the economy in recession?' and the answer is 'No,' because things that the National Bureau of Economic Research uses to date recessions all went up—economy, income, business sales, industrial production—so we're not in a recession. So that's the reason why I would ignore the numbers."
With an expectation that GDP in Q2 will come in at "4 [percent] if not slightly better," LaVorgna is clearly optimistic about the economy.
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Of course, not everyone is so bullish. Jeremy Lawson, chief economist for asset manager Standard Life Investments, isn't expecting a disappointing number, but nonetheless remains far more cautious about the pace of economic growth.
"In terms of the jobs report, I'm expecting more of the same. Solid jobs growth (200K to 250k), and perhaps another tick down on the unemployment rate," Lawson wrote to CNBC.com. "That said, we also think that the economy's potential growth rate is lower than in the past. Trend labor force participation has declined and probably substantially. ... In short, we are in the midst of a recovery, but it will likely remain a disappointing one."
—By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg.
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