THIS may spark dreaded stock correction: BlackRock
The stock market could be poised for a 10 percent decline as the Federal Reserve gets ready to hike interest rates for the first time in nine years, BlackRock Global Investment Strategist Russ Koesterich told CNBC on Monday.
"I think there's going to be a better opportunity to buy this market over the next two to three months," he said. "If you look at markets in and around the Fed tightenings, you generally get a 5 percent to 10 percent correction."
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"When I think about how low volatility is, with the credit markets telling us slower [economic] growth, that seems about right," he said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
Looking at possible rate-hike timing, JPMorgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman told CNBC he sees the chances of an initial move at the Fed's September meeting at 55 percent, although the bond market at the short-end of the yield curve is signaling a December increase.
"I think the 10-year yield is saying there's a lot of concern out there about what's happening globally," Kasman said, citing the stronger dollar and the meltdown in Chinese stocks.
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It's a notion that Koesterich sees as well. "Every indicator of global growth is pointing to a slowdown," he said.
Another economic hurdle comes on Friday, when the U.S. government releases the July employment report, which could sway this self-proclaimed, data-driven Fed.
"If you look at how fast the unemployment rate has been moving over the last two years, it's moving more rapidly than at any point when they got to the first tightening than in the early 1980s over the last 40 years or 50 years," said Kasman—bolstering his case for a September hike. At the same time, he said, "GDP hasn't been very impressive."
The exact timing of the rate move is not as important as the trajectory once monetary tightening starts, added Kasman, who sees rates moving 100 to 200 basis points higher over the next couple of years from the near-zero levels instituted in response to the 2008 financial crisis.
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"The market is looking for very little from the Fed over the next year, [or] year and a half," he said.
"Maybe the Fed is going to take their time, maybe it will be a December hike not September," Koesterich said, "but the reality is at some point in the next six to nine months we're going to start to see that accommodation being removed."