It may be a better holiday shopping season than initially thought, analyst says
Uncertainty over who would be the next president held the consumer back, and now that the election is over, it could be good news for retailers this holiday shopping season, a top retail analyst told CNBC on Thursday.
"I think it will be interesting to see over the next couple months, if we do see more of a sense of certainty, it could turn out to be a little bit better of a holiday then maybe initially thought," JPMorgan's Matt Boss said in an interview with CNBC's "Power Lunch."
The retail sector rallied Thursday, with the S&P retail ETF (XRT) closing up almost 3 percent higher as some department store earnings came in. It was led by Kohl's, which ended more than 11 percent higher after it topped earnings expectations.
During the third quarter, the low-price department store recorded revenue of $4.327 billion, slightly above the Thomson Reuters estimate of $4.325 billion. Its adjusted earnings per share came in at 80 cents, easily topping expectations for 70 cents.
Macy's, on the other hand, reported earnings that fell short of analysts' expectations. However, it raised its forecast for full-year comparable sales on owned and licensed items, saying they should decrease in the range of 2.5 percent to 3 percent. That compares with its prior outlook of a 3 percent to 4 percent decline.
"This was the week that people were concerned about in retail. The department stores is where there was the most negativity overall," Boss said. "The department stores, so far, have delivered."
More importantly, there is a sense of optimism looking forward, he added.
"The fourth quarter, the first quarter, you have easier compares and I think people are looking ahead to 2017 more so on the traffic aspect, and maybe we can see some more optimism."
— CNBC's Krystina Gustafson contributed to this report.
Disclosures: Macy's, J.C. Penney and Nordstrom are investment banking clients of JPMorgan. JPMorgan owns a position of $1 million or more in debt securities of JCP, M, JWN. JPMorgan and/or affiliate is market maker and/or liquidity provider. JPMorgan acted as lead/co-manager in public offering of equity and/or debt securities for JCP. JPMorgan and/or JPMorgan Chase employee is Nordstrom director/officer.