Donald Trump's stock market rally has hurt Amazon but helped the stocks it has been crushing
Donald Trump's White House win has been very good for the retail stocks that have been getting crushed over the years by online retailer Amazon.com.
Amazon itself has fallen, along with the high beta tech names, but Bespoke says brick-and-mortar retailers it tracks in its "Death by Amazon" index have rallied sharply.
"Until the period just before the Presidential Election, the Death By Amazon index was under-performing, down 4.6 percent YTD versus an S&P 1500 up 5 percent and Amazon up over 16 percent. Since election day, it's been the complete opposite. Amazon has shed over 6 percent, while the Death By Amazon index has rallied almost 9 percent," Bespoke wrote in a note earlier Monday.
Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke, said he views Amazon's decline as the result of a rotation by investors who are dumping names like Alphabet and Facebook, and are snapping up industrials and financials — and also retailers.
The retail stocks, he said, are being helped by Trump policy. Trump has promised tax cuts and a massive infrastructure program, which has been lifting a whole group of stocks.
"I think lower taxes helps out the prospects of the retailers. I don't think it's a function that nobody's going to ship via the internet anymore. The [performance] gap has been enormous," said Hickey.
Bespoke's "Death by Amazon" list is made up of 54 retailers of all different sizes. Among them are Wal-Mart, Costco, CVS, Dollar Tree, Fred's, GameStop, Nordstrom, Kroger's, Kohl's, Office Depot, Francesca's, Haverty Furniture, Foot Locker, Williams-Sonoma, Supervalu and Target.
Hickey said he believes the rotation by investors funding their new infrastructure and other holdings is the most likely explanation for Amazon's drop, which is about 8 percent from Election Day through Monday's close.
He said he does not believe it has to do with the disagreement between Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos and Trump, which played out over Twitter. Bezos last week did congratulate Trump on his win.
"There is talk about the 'grudge,'" Hickey said. "Maybe for some people, that's why they're selling, but what I would think is its more towards money reallocation — funds out of tech, which has done so well."