JPMorgan unveils its top tax stock plays — including Hilton, Southwest — with GOP nearing victory
- JPMorgan unveils it favorite stocks as congressional Republicans near victory on their tax bill; the current bill would cut the corporate rate to 21 percent.
- "We believe progress on GOP/Trump policy initiatives (i.e., lower corporate taxes, reduction in regulatory burden) should be a significant source of upside for equities," wrote JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas.
- By screening for companies with high tax rates, domestic sales and pricing power, JPMorgan's equity analysts determined that the following stocks could benefit most from the GOP plan.
Investors are scrambling to determine which companies will benefit most from President Donald Trump's policy initiatives, including the current Republican plan for tax cuts.
JPMorgan's top analysts weighed in on the discussion, with Dubravko Lakos-Bujas – the bank's head of U.S. equity strategy – telling clients that corporate tax cuts spell a "goldilocks" scenario for stocks.
"We believe progress on GOP/Trump policy initiatives (i.e., lower corporate taxes, reduction in regulatory burden) should be a significant source of upside for equities," wrote the strategist. "We estimate the tax plan could provide additional upside of ~$10 to S&P 500 earnings per share, which would increase our estimates to $153 in 2018 and $165 in 2019."
The current Republican legislation aims to boost economic activity and fuel job growth, with party officials assuring voters that the bill would pay for itself through GDP expansion. Provisions of the bill include a top individual tax rate of 37 percent while also lowering the corporate tax rate to 21 percent, which could spell gains for earnings in the coming years.
The lawmakers are expected to vote on a reconciled bill early next week.
"Considering these drivers and the potential for legislative success on tax reform, we expect S&P 500 to reach 3,000 next year," added Lakos-Bujas, forecasting double-digit growth in the next 12 months.
But the strategist also encouraged investors to buy select stocks that could outperform others if Trump is victorious on the tax plan.
By screening for companies with high tax rates, domestic sales and pricing power, JPMorgan's equity analysts determined that the following stocks could benefit the most from the GOP plan. While some company stocks have performed well this year, others may be set for a rebound with tax reform.
"Financials is our highest conviction overweight given the sector should continue to benefit from a 'goldilocks-type' scenario with expanding net interest margin (rising rates) and declining credit costs (strong labor market with falling unemployment rate with some wage growth)," explained Lakos-Bujas.
The strategist also advised investors to pivot to value from growth stocks, arguing that the latter group may be extended with technology's long run this year. Value picks with strong fundamentals and dividends in financials and energy may be a better better into 2018, according to the research.