Three Midwestern Senate Democrats have big leads in new polls to go along with massive cash advantages
- Three Senate Democrats running in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota hold comfortable leads in their bids for re-election, according to NBC News/Marist polls.
- Tammy Baldwin, Debbie Stabenow and Tina Smith also have big fundraising cushions against their Republican challengers.
- President Donald Trump narrowly won both Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016.
Senate Democrats defending their seats this year in three key Midwestern states have double-digit leads in new polls released Thursday to go along with a massive fundraising edge.
Incumbents seeking re-election in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota hold comfortable edges with a little more than three months before November's midterms, the NBC News/Marist polls found. The numbers back up the perception that the races — two of which will take place in states President Donald Trump narrowly won in 2016 — may be out of reach for the GOP as it tries to keep or expand its Senate majority on a favorable electoral map.
If Republicans cannot flip any of those states, it increases the importance of beating Democrats in redder states such as Missouri and Indiana or defending seats in Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee. In listing the states that will determine Senate control this year, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell notably left out Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as Pennsylvania and Ohio, two states Trump won in 2016 where Democrats face re-election.
- Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin holds a big advantage over both of her potential Republican challengers in a state Trump carried by less than a percentage point, according to an NBC/Marist poll. Baldwin garners 54 percent of support among registered voters in a potential matchup with Kevin Nicholson, versus 39 percent for the GOP Marine veteran. In a possible race against conservative activist and nurse Leah Vukmir, 55 percent say they prefer Baldwin, while 38 percent back Vukmir, the poll says. The state's primary will take place Aug. 14.
- Michigan: Sen. Debbie Stabenow tries to hold her seat in another state the president won by less than a percentage point. An NBC/Marist poll indicates she may have little trouble against either of her potential opponents as of now. Fifty-five percent of registered voters responded that they would back Stabenow, versus 37 percent who said they would support veteran and businessman John James, the survey said. Against businessman Sandy Pensler, the Democrat garners 52 percent of support, compared with 37 percent for Pensler. Michigan holds its primaries on Aug. 7.
- Minnesota: Sen. Tina Smith — who was appointed to fill Al Franken's seat following his resignation at the start of the year — also has a comfortable cushion, according to an NBC/Marist poll. Smith is running in a special election, as Franken's term was not set to end until 2020. Forty-nine percent of registered voters support Smith, versus 35 percent who back her likely opponent, businesswoman Karin Housley, the survey says. The survey did not poll voters on the race for Democrat Amy Klobuchar's seat, which is considered safe for Democrats. Minnesota will hold its primaries on Aug. 14.
The polls are more good news for the Democrats running in the three states, who enjoy a huge cash advantage over their opponents.
In Wisconsin, Baldwin has a big financial lead over possible opponents Nicholson and Vukmir. Baldwin had raised more than $21 million as of the end of June, and had roughly $7.2 million in in cash on hand. That compares with roughly $5 million raised by both opponents combined, who each had less than $1 million in cash on hand.
But the Wisconsin Senate race has drawn a surge of so-called outside spending from super PACs that don't have limits on what they raise or spend, often on TV and digital advertising campaigns. As of June 30, some $6.4 million in soft money had been spent in support of Nicholson and $1.4 million to boost Vukmir's campaign, while only $1 million had been spent to support Baldwin. Some $4.3 million went toward opposing Baldwin, compared with $2.4 million opposing Vukmir and $451,000 against Nicholson.
In Michigan, Stabenow has a solid fundraising lead with nearly $15 million in cash taken in and $9.6 million in cash on hand, as of June 30. Her GOP challengers, Pensler and James, had raised $9.1 million between them and ended June with a combined $3.6 million.
Stabenow also benefited from outside spending of $1.4 million supporting her campaign; her opponents drew less than $300,00 in outside spending to the race.
Minnesota voters will choose two senators in November, with Klobuchar facing little opposition. As of June 30, she had outraised her likely GOP opponent, Jim Newberger, by nearly 10 to one and had $6.4 million in cash compared with Newberger's war chest of only $1,210.
In the other race, as of the end of June, Smith had $1.8 million in cash left over from the $4.5 million her campaign had raised. Housley began July with $1.1 million of the $1.7 million she had raised. Neither candidate has drawn significant amounts of outside spending to the race.
The live-caller NBC/Marist polls were conducted July 15-19 among respondents contacted by both landline and cell phone.
- The margin of error for the 886 registered voters in Michigan is +/- 3.9 percentage points. For Republican primary likely voters only, the margin of error is +/- 8.4 percentage points. For Democratic primary likely voters only, the margin of error is +/- 7.9 percentage points.
- The margin of error for the 876 registered voters in Minnesota is +/- 4.0 percentage points. For Republican primary likely voters only, the margin of error is +/- 10 percentage points. For Democratic primary likely voters only, the margin of error is +/- 8.6 percentage points.
- And the margin of error of the 906 registered voters in Wisconsin is +/- 3.8 percentage points. For Republican primary likely voters only, the margin of error is +/- 8.5 percentage points. For Democratic primary likely voters only, the margin of error is +/- 7.5 percentage points.