India will account for 20% of Apple's user growth over the next five years, Morgan Stanley estimates

KEY POINTS

• India could account for 15% of Apple's revenue growth and 20% of install growth over the next five years, Morgan Stanley analysts estimated.
• The analysts increased their price target to $220 and said that India could create $40 billion in revenue for Apple over the next decade.
• Building a stronger retail and manufacturing base in the country has been a top priority for Apple.

Apple CEO Tim Cook reacts to a customer carrying a Macintosh SE during the opening of the new Apple BKC store in Mumbai, India, on April 18, 2023.

Indranil Aditya | Bloomberg | Getty Images

India will likely be a major driver of Apple's five-year revenue and installed base growth, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note Monday, citing Apple's investment in manufacturing in India and the country's "economic boom."

The note also reflected a new India-driven price target increase, from $190 to $220, with a bull-case valuation increased to $270. Morgan Stanley also reiterated Apple as their Top Pick.

Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that over the next five years, the country could account for 15% of Apple's revenue growth — in contrast to 2% in the past five years and $6 billion today — and 20% of the company's installed base growth.

The revenue growth, which Morgan Stanley forecasts at $40 billion over the next 10 years, would be the "equivalent to Apple ramping an entirely new product category."

The analysts cite a number of factors in their assessment, including India's improved electrification and Apple's clear efforts to build a manufacturing and retail presence in the country. A survey commissioned by Morgan Stanley suggested Indian consumers have an increased desire and ability to purchase iPhones.

Analysts did add a caveat, warning that if India fails to meet its economic and demographic growth marks, "we wouldn't expect Apple to be as significant of a beneficiary in India."

But Morgan Stanley's fundamental thesis is bullish. "All-in, this means that India will be just as important to Apple's growth algorithm over the next 5+ years as China was in the last 5 years, something we believe the market underappreciates today," the analysts said.