KEY POINTS
  • Wheat prices are down around 29% year-to-date and at their lowest since September 2020, with short positions — bets on prices to fall — rising to a three-month high.
  • Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, disagrees with the market's optimism over Ukraine supplies, future crop yields and production.
  • "I may have to wait a year, maybe three years, to get returns on these grains, but I'm prepared to sit it out," Roche told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday.
A combine operator climbs aboard a combine as they harvest wheat at a farm near Kramatorsk, in Donetsk region on August 4, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Grain prices have been in freefall of late as investors bet on a resurgence of supply from the U.S., Russia and Ukraine — but veteran strategist David Roche disagrees.

Contrary to market consensus, Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, expects a 13-15% annual increase in wheat prices over the next two years.