U.S. retail trade group sees holiday sales growth slowing
* Nov.-Dec. sales seen up 4.1 pct vs 5.6 pct in 2011
* 'Fiscal cliff' weighing on consumers - NRF president
* Online sales seen up 12 percent - Shop.org
By Brad Dorfman
Oct 2 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales should rise 4.1 percentthis holiday season, slower growth than in the past two years asmixed economic data and political uncertainty weigh onconsumers, the world's largest retail trade association said.
The forecast released on Tuesday by the National RetailFederation puts sales at $586.1 billion in November andDecember. The 4.1 percent growth forecast trails the 5.6 percentgrowth seen in 2011 and 5.5 percent growth in 2010.
The NRF forecast is one of the closely watched benchmarksfor expectations ahead of the holiday season, which can accountfor one-third of annual sales in many cases. With consumerspending making up about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, theholiday season is an important gauge as to whether theslow-growing U.S. economy can shift into a higher gear.
The biggest things holding back consumers are uncertaintyover whether lawmakers can come to an agreement to avoid theso-called "fiscal cliff" of across-the-board spending cuts setfor Jan. 2 as well as tax increases for all income groups.
"It's the uncertainty about where the economy is going, theuncertainty at the federal level about the fiscal cliff, theabsence of a path forward from the president and the Congress,"NRF President Matthew Shay said in an interview.
Recent signs on the economy have been mixed. On Friday, theU.S. Department of Commerce said that personal income ticked up0.1 percent, but was down 0.3 percent after accounting forinflation and taxes - the first decline in real disposableincome since November.
Consumers have been hit by a rise in gasoline costs andunemployment that remains above 8 percent.
But home values and the stock market have risen, helpingconsumer confidence touch a four-month high in September.
The NRF forecast is more optimistic than some others alreadyreleased. Last month, research firm ShopperTrak forecast a 3.3percent rise in sales for the holiday season, while theInternational Council of Shopping Centers forecast a 2.5 percentincrease.
The NRF forecast includes most traditional retail categoriesincluding non-store, auto parts and accessories stores,discounters, department stores, grocery stores, and specialtystores, and exclude sales at automotive dealers, gas stations,and restaurants.
Separately, Shop.org, forecast a 12 percent increase inonline holiday sales to a range of $92 billion to $96 billionfor the November-December period. The estimate is the NRF'sdigital division's first forecast of online sales.
(Reporting By Brad Dorfman; Editing by Bernard Orr)
((bradley.dorfman@thomsonreuters.com)(1-312-408-8133)(Reuters
Messaging: bradley.dorfman@thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
Keywords: USA HOLIDAY/NRF FORECAST