What's Next For Oil?

What's the trade as crude moves lower ahead of Wednesday's data release?

Lynn Westfall, Tesoro Chief Economist joins the panel for this conversation. Following is a summary of his main points.

Where do refiners stand on margins?

We stand where we’ve stood historically, replies Westfall. We’re back to where we ought to be. The rule of thumb in refining is you lose money in January, you break even in February and your first quarter is made in March. And by the second quarter we reach peak demand and margins.

How much control do you have over the prices in your business?

Very little, replies Westfall. We announced that we’re cutting runs at refineries. And we’re watching inventories. But price is beyond our control.

You’ve said in the past fair market value for crude is $60. Still think that?

If anything the supply and demand balance is getting worse. And now there’s a lot of talk of recession. l think OPEC has to be worried about maintaining prices world wide.

But at what price do you see oil?

In the past the Saudi’s have said they’re comfortable with crude between $60-$70. And with the Saudi’s basically in control I’d take my advice from them.

What do you think of this stock, traders?

Long term I think Tesoro is a buy, says Pete Najarian. But it’s probably not fast money.

I see it’s as a value play, says Karen Finerman.

I think the stock has a floor at $35, adds Guy Adami

Wait – there needs to be more control over the business, says Jeff Macke.

* Note, this segment was broadcast before news broke that Venezuela is suspending exports to Exxon Mobil.

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Trader disclosure: On Feb.12, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (YHOO), (INTC), (ATVI), (DIS); Najarian Owns (BIIB), (C), (CSCO), (MS), (MSFT), (NOK), (XLF), (YHOO), (MCD); Najarian Owns (AAPL) Calls; Najarian Owns (FRE) Puts; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (HD); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (TSO), (VLO), (WMT), (YHOO), (AAPL), (GE), (DVA); Finerman's Firm Is Short (SPY), (IWM), (IJR), (IYR), (MDY), (LEH), (LEN); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (CROX) And (CROX) Options; Finerman's Firm Is Short (LEH) And Owns (LEH) Puts