CNBC TRANSCRIPT: CNBC'S BECKY QUICK & CARL QUINTANILLA SPEAK WITH ROBERT DOLL, BLACKROCK CIO OF GLOBAL EQUITIES TODAY ON CNBC'S "SQUAWK BOX"
Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Robert Doll, BlackRock CIO of Global Equities today on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
All references must source CNBC.
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QUICK: WELCOME BACK IT IS TIME TO KICK OFF TODAY'S SPECIAL EVENT ON CNBC REBUILDING YOUR PORTFOLIO ALL DAY LONG WE ARE GOING TO BRINGING THE ANSWERS YOU'LL BE LOOKING FOR WHEN IT COMES TO MANAGING YOUR INVESTMENTS HELPING US KICK OFF THE DAY TODAY IS BOB DOLL HE IS THE VICE CHAIRMAN AND GLOBAL CIO OF EQUITIES AT BLACKROCK AND BOB THIS IS A TOUGH ONE TO TRY AND TACKLE FOR INVESTORS WHO HAVE LOST HALF MAYBE MORE IN THEIR PORTFOLIOS FOR THE LAST 18 MONTHS OR SO WHAT WOULD YOU BE ADVISING SOMEONE RIGHT NOW?
DOLL: I THINK BECKY WE NEED TO REALIZE WHERE WE ARE IN BOTH THE ECONOMIC CYCLE AND THE MARKET CYCLE AND WE THINK THE ANSWER TO THAT IS THIS IS A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN YOU SHOULD BE DOLLAR COST AVERAGING OUT OF SAFE ASSETS CASH AND TREASURIES INTO MORE RISK ASSETS EQUITIES AND CORPORATE BONDS WE THINK THE WORST OF THE RECESSION IS IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR AND THE MARKET CONTINUES TO BE IN A BOTTOMING PROCESS
QUICK: ALL RIGHT FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN BURNED PRETTY BADLY AND MAY BE A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO JUMP BACK INTO THINGS THAT BURNED THEM HOW DO YOU CONVINCE THEM THAT IT IS THE RIGHT MOVE FOR THEM
DOLL: WELL I KNOW THAT'S VERY DIFFICULT BUT OFTEN THE TIME WHEN THINGS IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR LOOK THE WORST IS THE TIME TO LOOK FORWARD AND OWN THOSE ASSETS AGAIN WE'VE HAD 8 PERIODS WHERE THE STOCK MARKET MEASURED BY THE S&P 500 HAS BEEN DOWN FOR A FIVE YEAR PERIOD WE'VE JUST LIVED THROUGH THE 9TH IN THE FIRST 8 THE NEXT 5-YEARS THE STOCK MARKET WAS UP A DOUBLE-DIGIT PERCENTAGE EACH AND EVERY TIME AND FOUR OF THOSE IN PERIODS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DEPRESSION
QUICK: ALTHOUGH SOME PEOPLE POINT OUT THAT THIS IS A PERIOD IN TIME WHEN WE COMPARE IT BACK TO THE GREAT DEPRESSION WE LOOK BACK TO WHAT HAPPENED THE YEARS AFTER THE GREAT DEPRESSION THERE WERE FIVE BULL MARKET OR BEAR MARKET RALLIES IF YOU LOOKED AT THERE WERE MASSIVE RALLIES IN THAT TIME PERIOD AND THEN IT CAME BACK DOWN AND THERE WERE PROBABLY PEOPLE WHO THINK OF MY GOSH WHY WOULD I JUMP IN WHY NOT WAIT HOW DO YOU CONVINCE THEM THAT THIS IS THE RIGHT MOVE
DOLL: WELL YOU CAN'T IF THEY THINK WE ARE IN THE GREAT DEPRESSION ALTHOUGH AS YOU POINT OUT THERE ARE BIG RALLIES IN IT OUR VIEWS ARE THAT THINGS ARE VERY DIFFERENT THIS TIME AND WHILE WE DO HAVE CHALLENGES AND THIS WILL BE TERMED THE GREAT RECESSION THAT IN FACT THE WORST IS IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR WE THINK THE FOURTH QUARTER LAST YEAR AND THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS DOWN 5-6% REAL GDP THAT THINGS WILL GET LESS WORSE AND THAT EVENTUALLY BETTER FROM HERE
QUICK: WITHIN CORPORATE BONDS AND EQUITIES WHERE ARE THE SECTORS THAT YOU THINK ARE THE BEST PLACE TO BE ROTATING INTO RIGHT NOW
DOLL: WE STILL THINK THAT A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO MAKES SENSE OUR FAVORITE CYCLICAL SECTOR ENERGY FAVORITE GROWTH SECTOR TECHNOLOGY, AND FAVORITE DEFENSIVE SECTOR HEALTHCARE
QUINTANILLA: BOB WE'VE HAD A PRETTY NICE MOVE HERE AND WE'VE TALKED TO SOME PEOPLE WHO WERE SMART IN CALLING THE MARCH LOWS AND SAYING MAYBE YOU FADE OUT A LITTLE BIT HERE AS WE COME UP ARE YOU SELLING THINGS THAT HAVE DONE WELL I MEAN FREEPORT MACKLERMAN IS UP 40% IT WOULD BE A NICE LITTLE TAKE AWAY
DOLL: YES WE ARE DOING SOME REARRANGING WITHIN PORTFOLIO NOT GIVING UP ON EQUITIES BUT SOME THINGS THAT ARE UP A BUNCH US STEEL FOR US SOME OF THE TECHNOLOGY NAMES THAT HAVE DONE REALLY WELL JUST TRIMMING THOSE AND BUYING SOME THINGS THAT ARE MORE DEFENSIVE LIKE HEALTHCARE WHICH LAGGED
QUINTANILLA: IS THE REFLATION TRADE WOULD YOU SAY IT IS HALF OVER OR DONE NOT NEAR BEING DONE
DOLL: OUR VIEW IS IT HAS A LONG WAY TO GO WE THINK THE FORCES OF REFLATION WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY BEAT UP ON THE FORCES OF DEFLATION BUT THATS A MULTI-QUARTER BATTLE THAT'S ONLY IN THE EARLY STAGES
QUICK: BOB WHAT NAMES PARTICULARLY DO YOU LIKE IN HEALTHCARE IF THAT'S AN AREA THAT YOU ARE TARGETING
DOLL: IN THE SERVICE AREA WITHIN HEALTHCARE UNITED HEALTHCARE, WELL POINT AETNA AND IN PHARMACEUTICAL SPACE JOHNSON & JOHNSON, LILLY PFIZER POST AQUISITION WITH WYETH
QUICK: IN TERMS OF ENERGY NAMES TECHNOLOGY YOU MENTIONED THAT YOU ARE TRIMMING SOME OF YOUR TECHNOLOGY NAMES WHICH ONES ARE YOU TRIMMING AND WHICH ONES ARE YOU LOOKING AT AS GOOD PLACES TO BE RIGHT NOW
DOLL: WELL SOME OF THE NAMES IN TECHNOLOGY THAT HAVE GONE UP A LOT IN THE HARDWARE SPACE INCLUDING SEMICONDUCTORS, SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT WE ARE DOING SOME TRIMMING THERE AND PUTTING THAT BACK INTO SOFTWARE AND SERVICES WHERE THEY HAVEN'T GONE UP AS MUCH SOME OF THE BIG BROAD MULTINATIONALS LIKE IBM CAN BE ADDED TOO ESPECIALLY ON WEAKNESS
QUINTANILLA: WE'VE SEEN GOLD NOW STUBBORNLY BELOW 900 DO YOU THINK PEOPLE ARE SELLING IT IS THAT PART OF THE TRAIN MOVING INTO EQUITIES
DOLL: I SUSPECT THAT'S PART OF IT GOLD GOING UP WAS A FEAR OF A WHOLE BUNCH OF THINGS PEOPLE ARE TAKING SOME PROFITS THERE WE DON'T THINK THE RUN IN GOLD IS OVER OR COMMODITIES IN GENERAL BUT AFTER THE BIG RUN IT HAD THE FALLS MAKE A LOT OF SENSE
QUICK: AND IN ENERGY WHICH NAMES IN PARTICULAR THERE
DOLL: AGAIN STILL THERE MOSTLY PREFERRING THE BIG INTEGRATED COMPANIES CONNOCO MARATHON CHEVRON FOR SAFETY EXXON IS JUST FINE
QUICK: BOB THANK YOU SO MUCH IT IS GREAT TALKING TO YOU.
DOLL: HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND
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