Schork Oil Outlook: Tenuous Bearish Bias
Energy prices were firm on Thursday. Natural gas futures in New York surged (and that is putting it mildly) in the wake of, what was hardly a bullish, report from the EIA.
Meantime, the liquids markets once again rallied out of a key technical area of support. As far as the rally in the Henry Hub pit goes… if you tell us you have a fundamental explanation, we don’t believe you.
At this point, if you are bearish crude oil, as we are, and Wednesday’s rally did not raise your hackles… then yesterday’s rebound should have.
If it did not, then you are either very confident in your grasp of the market or you are very foolish.
Time will tell.
That said, here at we will maintain our bearish nearby view, but we are wary. After all, the bulls are answering the bell. The market plunged into the 50/62% retracements and they are holding the line.
Thus, it is now up to the bears to break through. If they don’t then it is $75 here we come. In this vein, should the market close above a bearish channel, marked today at 62.85, we will withdraw our daily bearish bias.
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Stephen Schork is the Editor of, and has more than 17 years experience in physical commodity and derivatives trading, risk systems modeling and structured commodity finance.