For tomorrow’s natural gas EIA report the market is looking for an injection of ?80 Bcf. This is the second report of the final stage of this refill season. Last week’s reported 69 Bcf injection was low by historical standards, but given we are on the cusp of maximum capacity, we are not concerned. Injections typically trend higher through the first half of this phase.

However, we are already shoehorning molecules into whatever capacity that still exists, injections this month will be low by historical standards. To wit, the typical injection at this point is around 94 Bcf. It is clear to us that October NYMEX gas has decoupled from the complex. On Monday the contract settled at a $1.027 discount to the November. But, in between 11am and 1pm yesterday, you could have legged into this spread at below 90 cents as the October spiked and the November failed to follow. The spread settled back up at 98.1 cents after the October corrected lower. As such, 16-day vol in the October has ballooned from 33% to 105% since the start of the month.