Marked changes in volatility and direction for the S&P 500 on the chart show investors are exiting on rallies. » Read More
The U.S. dollar index appears headed toward a level of 85 going by technical indicators that show "a very bearish situation." » Read More
The benchmark Shanghai Stock exchange index has halted a march higher. It can be linked to trade friction between the U.S. and China. » Read More
The Australian dollar challenged a long-term resistance level near 81 and then failed to develop a new uptrend. The retreat took the Australian dollar back to test the long-term support level near 7.75.
The very best technical analysis helps us to put aside our hopes, dreams and assumptions, so that we can get a more objective view.
Take your pick — $52, $75, $82.50 or $100 a barrel? The outlook for West Texas Intermediate on the New York Mercantile Exchange seems particularly confused with some analysis calling for a fall in contrast to wildly optimistic targets near $100.
All prices are possible, but some are more probable than others.
Markets have focused on the sudden drops in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Shanghai composite index. For many, the Dow fall had a benign inevitably — no need to panic. The fall in the Shanghai market, however, was seen as a warning sign, but it could actually turn into a fresh opportunity.
The Dow retreat, high-to-low, was a little over 12 percent. Let us call the move past 10 percent an overshoot, so this retreat is seen as a correction rather than a trend change.
The Shanghai index decline was 14 percent. Given the higher level of background volatility in the Shanghai market, it's fair to call the move past 10 percent an overshoot.
But that is where similarities end. The fall in the Shanghai market is not the same as the fall in the Dow, although the increasing exposure to, and integration into the global financial system has exacerbated the fall.
We know every good horror movie has a nasty ending, but that doesn't stop us from flinching, or screaming, when it happens.
The Dow retreat is the same. The focus on interest rates in the United States has been a topic of discussion for more than a year. Like a good horror movie the clues have been piling up, but markets like to pretend they have been caught by surprise.