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The NYMEX breakout above long-term resistance near $54 a barrel for crude oil has caused a ripple of excitement in what has been a largely moribund market in West Texas Intermediate for nearly 18 months. Sure there were trading opportunities in the rallies and retreats between $43 and $54, but slow-moving volatility doesn't make for good trading.
The Australian dollar has slipped from a peak of $0.81 to a low of $0.79 before developing an uncertain rebound.
Can the Australian dollar find genuine support near $0.71 or is Australian dollar weakness going to continue to develop? This is the first question traders are asking.
Alternatively, is the underlying uptrend strength solid enough to develop a sustainable rebound and breakout above resistance near $0.81? This is the second question, usually asked by investors with a longer-term view of the market.
It is difficult to ignore the performance of the dollar, as Aussie strength is often a direct consequence of weakness in the U.S. currency, which had fallen recently to $0.91 on the dollar index chart.
The mild dollar recovery to $0.93 has coincided with the weakness in the Australian dollar.
Although the Australian dollar may be driven by the strength of the dollar, it is the behavior of the Aussie that sets the breakout targets.
The Kospi trend remains astounding, and despite the pullback, the trend strength remains intact. This remains an exceptionally strong trend and traders and investors were alert for consolidation and retracement behavior.
The Kospi is analyzed using trade band analysis. The width of the prolonged sideways trading band is measured and this value is projected upwards to give the breakout targets.
The most optimistic chart-based targets have been achieved with the index above 2230 and 2400. The same trade band projection methods can be applied to set the next upside target. This sets a target near 2560. This is a very optimistic target and despite the trend strength, its unlikely this target will be achieved quickly.